NatGas - Sun of the Beach
I think most of you who were trading Natty in the last few months had mentioned the title at least once or twice.
It's toying with us. So there are 2 options :
1. Get out and find some other vehicle.
2. Try to trade it somehow because the consolidation will be over sooner or later.
Those who follow me for a while know which pill I have chosen.
At the last NatGas idea I suggested a buying at or before 9/11 based on the cycles. For a few days it looked good but after a breakout of the triangle we broke down from the triangle. Triangles are screwing the cycles so it's almost impossible to trade them based on cycles.
Most probably we printed the ICL on the 4th of August and the 9th of October was a the new intermediate cycle's first daily cycle low.
When the triangle breaks up and down in a few days the pattern becomes almost impossible to trade.
I assume that commodities are in a new bull market. Natty also holding above the 2015 and 2016 yearly lows and day after day it's losing the chance to break lower. This pattern is a sign of accumulation which wants to break to the upside.(Volume is supporting the accumulation idea)
When? Maybe tomorrow , maybe next week, maybe only January. But when a consolidation like this breaks it bounces hard. So all who are not in the train will have to buy into the overbought condition or wait for the never coming pullback.
So my suggestion is here to have some kind of starting position. What I think even if we are breaking down we will not break below 2.387$.
2.387$ is 17% lower than today's price . So all who takes this trade will have to prepare for one more drawdown .There might or might not be a drawdown but if it comes I will be buying there also.
The break above the 200 SMA will be an important sign that the party is starting. Notice how the 200 SMA stopped the rally again and again. The next significant breakout above it will hold.
Instead of watching the triangle I will watch the above range from today.
It's toying with us. So there are 2 options :
1. Get out and find some other vehicle.
2. Try to trade it somehow because the consolidation will be over sooner or later.
Those who follow me for a while know which pill I have chosen.
At the last NatGas idea I suggested a buying at or before 9/11 based on the cycles. For a few days it looked good but after a breakout of the triangle we broke down from the triangle. Triangles are screwing the cycles so it's almost impossible to trade them based on cycles.
Most probably we printed the ICL on the 4th of August and the 9th of October was a the new intermediate cycle's first daily cycle low.
When the triangle breaks up and down in a few days the pattern becomes almost impossible to trade.
I assume that commodities are in a new bull market. Natty also holding above the 2015 and 2016 yearly lows and day after day it's losing the chance to break lower. This pattern is a sign of accumulation which wants to break to the upside.(Volume is supporting the accumulation idea)
When? Maybe tomorrow , maybe next week, maybe only January. But when a consolidation like this breaks it bounces hard. So all who are not in the train will have to buy into the overbought condition or wait for the never coming pullback.
So my suggestion is here to have some kind of starting position. What I think even if we are breaking down we will not break below 2.387$.
2.387$ is 17% lower than today's price . So all who takes this trade will have to prepare for one more drawdown .There might or might not be a drawdown but if it comes I will be buying there also.
The break above the 200 SMA will be an important sign that the party is starting. Notice how the 200 SMA stopped the rally again and again. The next significant breakout above it will hold.
Instead of watching the triangle I will watch the above range from today.
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