3.9% Unemployment. Don't be Fooled!

2022年1月7日

Don't be fooled. 3.9% UR in the context of a smaller labor force That peaked in 2000.
This chart shows all All Employees, Total Nonfarm divided by population size.

As you can see all employees to population kept skyrocketing from 1957 to 2000 with
deficits next to nothing. SInce 2000, all employees have flatlined at best while
deficits keep increasing exponentially. So to have a 3.9% UR with a small % of pop
working is not really that good. In fact, it is giving the false signal that all is well if
one does not understand the context.

I did not include imports to exports as it would have cluttered the chart.
Nor did I GDP adjust deficits as the outcome was the same more or less.

Lastly, remember this is also in the context of 6.8% Inflation with very very weak
Real GDP growth

With labor costs rising.

This is by no means politically driven. I hate politics and think both sides are the same. I only care
what the data is telling us.

So next time someone tells you we are deficit spending to "STIMULATE" the economy. Laugh and then fact check.
Chances are you are being lied to.

2023年1月20日

註釋

Not much more left in the tank to grow revenues and profits
despite huge deficits