Russia/Ukraine Crisis effect on Raiffeisen Bank International
A few western companies that are listed could very much feel the consequences of the Russian invasion.
Energy firms revenues and profits may be offset by a potential oil price jump so that is not a major concern right now. The financial sector is where I see an issue. According to calculations by JPMorgan, for the financial sector, the risk is concentrated in Europe. Any conflict in Ukraine will hit Russia just as you would imagine, there would be an economic hit and, along with sanctions that the US will impose this doesn’t sound good. Raiffeisen Bank International derived 39% of its estimated net profit last year from its Russian subsidiary. Raiffeisen Bank International would therefore be a good company to short.
The two orange lines represent all-time highs and lows. The two black lines represent the last decade support and resistance levels In early 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea the stock fell by around 32%. In the event of an invasion, I see the stock falling towards the bottom black support line. Represented by the blue arrow. This would be a drop of around 22%.
Energy firms revenues and profits may be offset by a potential oil price jump so that is not a major concern right now. The financial sector is where I see an issue. According to calculations by JPMorgan, for the financial sector, the risk is concentrated in Europe. Any conflict in Ukraine will hit Russia just as you would imagine, there would be an economic hit and, along with sanctions that the US will impose this doesn’t sound good. Raiffeisen Bank International derived 39% of its estimated net profit last year from its Russian subsidiary. Raiffeisen Bank International would therefore be a good company to short.
The two orange lines represent all-time highs and lows. The two black lines represent the last decade support and resistance levels In early 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea the stock fell by around 32%. In the event of an invasion, I see the stock falling towards the bottom black support line. Represented by the blue arrow. This would be a drop of around 22%.