False breakout - buying is done on SPX.

Today looks to be a false breakout above local support/resistance, with a rejection from the .382 Fibonacci Re-tracement of the recent bearish leg down. Closed below the local resistance after finding resistance there late in the trading day. I think that the Oversold condition has corrected itself, albeit on low volume trading this week. Buy side volume is still decreasing, and I expect this market to drift sideways / down in the near term.

Tight correlation recently with USO (oil) and with JNK (junk bonds)

*These ideas are merely my opinion, and should not be taken as financial advice. Do not take any actions based on these opinions*

評論:

The retracement still has not exceeded the .382 Retracement. I would expect to trade sideways. I wouldn't given any credence to a bullish move until we are at least above the .5 retrace.

I did some analysis of the 2008 bear market. It looks like that leading up to, and after the collapse of lehman brothers almost every bearish move was stopped short of the .618 (or prior to that level). If we retrace .618, I would seriously consider changing my bias, but not at this level.

評論:

*These ideas are merely my opinion, and should not be taken as financial advice. Do not take any actions based on these opinions*

評論:

Rejected again today from .382 Looks to be putting in a double top. Sideways trading is likely to end on the back of Apple's letter to shareholders. Post market futures are flashing some downside tomorrow. As Apple goes, so goes the market.