SPX500- Weekly wrap and preview

已更新

All in the video. We are close to major support levels and I think while we may spike through them we have to be prepared for a rally coming in November. A spike through 4k on SPX would make the most headlines, but to me it would be a buy opportunity. Monthly 18ma is 4100 and price support is between 4050-4k. QQQ 200 daily ma is 5 dollars away. I was cautiously bullish yesterday but flipped bear when I saw the pattern was corrective and NQ was goading the bulls to get long.

I expect a little more selling next week but not too much longer.

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i misspoke about "the covid lows" - we're near the weekly rsi bottom of the 2022 lows.

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alternative channel reached, but i think it spikes through (yellow)

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I'm seeing a LOT of bottom calling for next week, which bothers me and could mean we'll have further downside to the 200 weekly ma at 3940 or slightly below. I didn't think it would happen, but at this point - with no final selling climax, it's possible. If people start buying this week and the market still tanks under 4k, that would cause panic for sure. Also, the put call ratio is still completely subdued.

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put/call still very low -

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if the vix gets over the 200ma it could run very hard. I think I'm going to stay cautiously bearish for a little while longer.

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uvxy weekly bull divergences, something I've seen before panic selling.

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Looks like we started a correction late Friday, Up for C to 14300+ on NQ is probable, but I think it's a continued short after that. Will update if we get back to that level overnight.

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on NQ a rally up to 14500 makes more sense than selling right now. RSI needs resets on mid time frames. If correct we rally tomorrow but reverse by tuesday and things will start getting much uglier.

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gap up above trendline, it should hold and go higher.

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spx has an expanding flat look to it - two targets possible. 4187 and 4220. If they gap up, a lot of people will fomo in assuming the bottom is in. I don't think so just yet.

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good morning, looks like a pennant on NQ has formed. A break below the yellow line is bearish again.

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on spx futures, this channel high will probably will be touched, possible short entry there....

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5 and 15 minute rsi looks like they need one more high

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at open if they sell it's likely a bear trap.

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collecting shorts very slowly, target is approx 4180-4185 on ES futures. Tech is outperforming

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target area reached, but can go higher to convince bulls...

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heavy resistance zone, taking shorts here.

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from here i think we sell rest of the day, If I'm wrong I will stop out at 4200 on ES futures. Going to hold this position until I see real panic.

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larger channel structure to watch

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vix over previous resistance, i think 29 is a conservative target here.

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it's rejecting, but they could play around with it as they usually do. Depends on the emotion of the day....

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a little support here, but it looks like they will start selling hard today

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at this point i believe all bounces will be sold. stops now at breakeven, going to let it ride.

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nq having the same issue at the top of it's channel.

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15 minute rsi on futures, still quite low. Another move up to mess with everyone is certainly possible.

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yeah they've been doing this lately - lots of whipsaws before bigger selling...

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looks like this as of 11:04

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buy the dippers loving this right now :)

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false recapture of support is bearish. No games today I think.

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right now it could go either way - one more high or that's it. I can't tell. One more high would be an excellent short entry. rsi can go either way as of 11:27

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DJI in a rising wedge.

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right now I'm suspicious of down moves because of the RSI. We could be in a B wave with a downmove being bought up hard tomorrow. I can't see it clearly today, so I'm putting this out there. I'll take profits and wait to see what comes. A nice bounce would convince bulls of the bottom, and convince me we've corrected fully, so I'd like to see that....

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NQ should also have support at the yellow line, another reason I'm suspicious even though I think a down move today is likely.

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if this is playing out, the market will sell into the close but it will look like tomorrow into Wednesday we get a larger rally.

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one more high and then it should sell. This is a bull trap and then bear trap into close.

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trying shorts again here for a quick day trade, may not work so stops tight

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stops from this morning now likely taken out, Should make the way down quick if I'm correct.

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ok last one for today, i think this is what's coming for the next few days, one more pullback and then rally to 4260ish on ES.

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barely sold, but i think this will be overnight into tomorrow

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B may be complete already overnight with C up today into tomorrow. Dips will likely get bought today and we go to 4240 on ES before more selling. Tech should outperform today.

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NQ chart, similar

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NQ entry around 14400 + or -

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watch for a bear trap open , sell down quick and then reversal.

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target reached, that may be the dip before open, not sure.

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it's hard to say exactly what is happening. On one hand futures look to be ready to go up, on the other hand, QQQ looks like it could pullback to it's gap. I'm not sure what's going to happen. We may get a severe bear trap today followed by a rally.

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ok ES structure is pointing to downside first, then I think it rallies. Not sure about timing....

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ok this looks better right now, going with this as the plan for today, if it gets a higher high, it will invalidate the move down.

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potential for whippy action at open....

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on another chart, I have the spx futures at channel resistance. 2hr rsi has plenty of room to fall if it wants to. So I'm saying It's possible we drop for another low. I'm not totally convinced either way, but i do think it's a short today. A reversal at some point may or may not happen and so caution and attention is needed. I'll be watching.....

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ok little pump and selling, should keep going

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panic day? could be ....

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vix bouncing from strong support, this could be a surprising day/week if it takes off....

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stops at breakeven now. I'm not going to touch it. If they stop me out I know the upmove is happening and I will reverse long. Good luck!

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sell rips like this one, tight stops in case it keeps going up

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all the way back to the trendline, wow. Higher highs and the downtrend is invalid, but I think this may be a bull trap, holding for now, stops about 10 points away...

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IF (big IF) they break today's low it will definitely be bearish for the rest of the day.

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tricks and traps, this looks like the correct count as of now.

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lowered stops to cash session high, if they get over that high, it's bullish at least temporarily.

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stopped out, they are going higher, looks like C has started, but it won't go as far as I thought.

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going to try and reenter short at about 4190 one stops are taken out completely and everyone flips bull. They have been doing this kind of maneuver lately, I wonder if they will again....