This short is both a play on a weaker than expected Chinese Services PMI print this evening and a response to the breakdown in technicals. (I'm also going long EURUSD just for the PMI print.)
Today, the market tried to bounce off the bullish trendline support during the second half of the trading day, but failed. In so doing, it breached support and closed below the uptrend from the January lows. Despite closing off the lows of the day, the price action is now firmly in "no-man's land." There's moderate resistance at 1915 in SPX (~1909 in /ES), which gives us a nice stop level and no firm support until 1880 down through 1873 in SPX (1874-1867 in /ES). I'm initially targeting the 1880 level in SPX solely on technicals. It's not the most robust thesis, but the truth is "the chart looks like it wants to find support at 1880 in SPX." Trader intuition is part of the game, after all!
If the technicals play out to the downside, I believe sentiment can provide the follow-through down to August 2015's closing low support at 1870ish in SPX (1864ish in /ES).
Today, the market tried to bounce off the bullish trendline support during the second half of the trading day, but failed. In so doing, it breached support and closed below the uptrend from the January lows. Despite closing off the lows of the day, the price action is now firmly in "no-man's land." There's moderate resistance at 1915 in SPX (~1909 in /ES), which gives us a nice stop level and no firm support until 1880 down through 1873 in SPX (1874-1867 in /ES). I'm initially targeting the 1880 level in SPX solely on technicals. It's not the most robust thesis, but the truth is "the chart looks like it wants to find support at 1880 in SPX." Trader intuition is part of the game, after all!
If the technicals play out to the downside, I believe sentiment can provide the follow-through down to August 2015's closing low support at 1870ish in SPX (1864ish in /ES).
評論:
Should have had this short stopped out this am, but moving stop up to 1917.5 in SPX.
評論:
Target reached this morning. Not closing the trade due to the strong reversal off of resistance at 1915 and, as mentioned in the original trade idea: if sentiment supports the technical move - which it is this morning, I see the potential to re-test the August 2015 lows at 1870ish. Will continue to ride this down lower.