To be honest I was expecting a new high before this happened
But what is interesting is that we are talking about an unprecedented -26% decline to date in only a few short weeks after 11 years of grinding up due to the feds policies of easy money, and from a S&P points perspective we are only a handful of points from declining the entire GFC points wise
I do expect some support to come in shortly as we are so stretched from any moving average at the outliers of standard deviations that it is only common sense that we will have some form of snap back rally before people realize the full damage that has been done to confidence, and then an ugly decline starts
Something has clearly broken, and the next rally may be sharp and exceed the highs to close all of the gaps - but this will only lead to another sharp decline
Oh well, another excuse for the fed to start blowing more bubbles!
Lets hope its not a decline > 65-70% because if it is then it increases the risk of civil unrest which history has shown is when radically minded people get into power and cause conflicts/ wars
But what is interesting is that we are talking about an unprecedented -26% decline to date in only a few short weeks after 11 years of grinding up due to the feds policies of easy money, and from a S&P points perspective we are only a handful of points from declining the entire GFC points wise
I do expect some support to come in shortly as we are so stretched from any moving average at the outliers of standard deviations that it is only common sense that we will have some form of snap back rally before people realize the full damage that has been done to confidence, and then an ugly decline starts
Something has clearly broken, and the next rally may be sharp and exceed the highs to close all of the gaps - but this will only lead to another sharp decline
Oh well, another excuse for the fed to start blowing more bubbles!
Lets hope its not a decline > 65-70% because if it is then it increases the risk of civil unrest which history has shown is when radically minded people get into power and cause conflicts/ wars
評論:
Probably not unreasonable to see a correction to around 1800, which would be a 47% decline before stabilising again, although given the sharp nature of the correction I think this is unlikely
評論:
If it turns into a 5 wave decline and:
goes down around 47% in <2 months in a 5 wave decline that will be the same as the 1929 crash
goes down by 36% in < 1m 25 days then it will be similar to the 1987 crash
At the moment we are at 28.72% which is closer to the 1933, 2001 or 1961 declines although we are in a 3 wave decline that could easily morph into a 5 wave decline meaning any short term rally will be just that - short term
goes down around 47% in <2 months in a 5 wave decline that will be the same as the 1929 crash
goes down by 36% in < 1m 25 days then it will be similar to the 1987 crash
At the moment we are at 28.72% which is closer to the 1933, 2001 or 1961 declines although we are in a 3 wave decline that could easily morph into a 5 wave decline meaning any short term rally will be just that - short term