已更新

SPX 500 - more whipsaws possibly on the menu

All in the video. I'm not sure the B wave is done, this looks like a suckers rally right now. Bullish into the end of the day is probable but tomorrow a gap down may occur - good luck!

註釋

one more move up and the B of B should be done.

註釋

watch out for this, B waves should have 3 parts, so ramp into close is likely if they sell it first....

註釋

right now, people are thinking "they know something"

youtu.be/RLySXTIBS3c?si=W7kEJSteQ4zgqfW8

註釋

stops destroyed on NQ I believe it will reverse.

註釋

how bout that

註釋

if correct tomorrow will gap down hard but it may be near support in which case it's a buy.

註釋

good morning, we had a sell off overnight but we're experiencing a substantial bounce from the overnight lows. This doesn't bode well for a C of B which should just sort of melt down with little bouncing.

If it isn't C of B then we have to consider one more low (wave 5) is developing. As I said yesterday, there are still many traders expecting a bounce. RTY has already made a new low overnight while the other indexes haven't, so we may have to go down to 4180-60 after all into Halloween. I will update today when ( or if) we get to support.

註釋

Nasdaq should get just a wee bit higher before the bulls trapped from yesterday start selling it. This looks like a 1-2 of wave 5.

註釋

if this is 5th wave, here's a sketch of the NQ structure.

註釋

i'm seeing the potential for a rally this morning, I think it will fail and fail hard.

註釋

Something like this is possible, be aware.

註釋

SPX bear flag broke - 4200 next

註釋

letting it ride - if this is 3 of 5, today will be very little bouncing. Enjoy

註釋

they are at structural support, but unless they get over 4230 this is bearish and this support will break. On spx cash the target is 4180 (double bottom)

註釋

see you later, out for a few hours

註釋

took off some in case I'm wrong and this will rally. just in case.....

註釋

Well that support level from yesterday is holding strong and this bounce is a LOT more than I expected. If they keep going we're going to 4300, I've stopped out of the runners already. A break below today's low is VERY bearish but I don't know if that is going to happen. A quick C wave up in a day could be unfolding like so ---Waiting to see how the pullback looks here.....

註釋

5 minute chart can certainly be an impulse wave. C wave up to 4300 possible, waiting for a pullback then I'll try long instead (with tight stop)......

註釋

attempting long here, if I get stopped out I will reshort under today's the low

註釋

if they get over today's high, the C wave is probably playing out. Today's low may be it for a few days.....I will keep checking....

註釋

bulls want 4210 to hold that's really the dividing line here.

註釋

a stab through of 4210 may happen just to make another trap. Under 4200 and it's bearish, right now undecided. I'll check in later, I have things I have to do.... Good luck and safe trading!

註釋

they are trying to hold this level of 4200, if it breaks we'll get impulsive selling. ok I'm out!

註釋

typing from a laptop, 4200 lost - any test of 4200 or slightly above it should be a short opp. I've added some shorts entries in that area, may not get filled.....

Right now the C up idea does not look good. Wave 5 is more likely what it is.

註釋

4180 bear flag target reached, could just keep going lower though....

註釋

ok back for a little while, there's a channel they are ping ponging. Top of the channel is a short opp until it isn't. A day like today likely keeps snaking down and then at some point the channel breaks down. Doesn't mean it has to do that, but I think that may happen....

註釋

ramped up at close but stopped right at 4200, I expect lower but not a whole lot more. The weekly MA's in this area should hold on even if they get through them a bit...

註釋

there's going to be a day - this week or probably next where the market goes into full panic mode, that's what I'm waiting to see for a bottom. This selling is very organized still

註釋

if it's a head and shoulders target of 4060, this may be the structure. A lof of people are seeing the channel, but the expanding channel I don't think many are noticing.....

註釋

put/call is now getting respectable. I spike above 2 is usually a time to start thinking long.

註釋

Good morning, we're at the channel trendline, so it could be a consolidation type of day. A break below 4140 and any retest of the channel area would be another short opportunity. Although targets are hit on spx, the SOXX etf hasn't hit my bear flag target of 420, so I'm watching for that area, will update.

註釋

i'm shorting USOIL, the consolidation broke, retraced and now it's starting to waterfall. The target is 72. Small bounces will likely be sold into. Should be a big move....

註釋

on relentless downtrends like this - watch the 5 minute RSI, When it gets overbought it may stay overbought for a bit but eventually you get a sell down. We're at a hot 5minute RSI reading here on NQ. It could go higher for sure, but it's worth watching for entries...

註釋

they are likely going to push the open up, but I think it fails. Good luck!

註釋

nq to trendline

註釋

short entry here, if I'm wrong I will stop out with a loss but not too big. I won't touch the position today as I think today could start the panic selling.

註釋

it's going higher to take out stops and convince bears to stop shorting

註釋

gap open on futures at 4211, still could get there

註釋

US OIL - good short entry possible here

註釋

channel target on nq is around 14100ish, and it looks like it may complete 5 waves. Just be aware that we may bounce from that level. GOod luck, I'm out for the day .

註釋

objective short here, Looks like 1-2 right now. Could be wrong, tight stops

註釋

oil shouldn't go higher according to the structure. Tight stops.

註釋

ok they ramped it up, Either it's a C and we fill the futures gap at 4211, or it's just a 1-2 before going lower. Either is possible but regardless, I think the rally will fail. Staying short.

註釋

put call down 25 percent, it will tank if they push up for C. Bears have no confidence like the bulls do.

註釋

updated chart, I still think mid 4k is the goal.

註釋

if oil gets over today's high the analysis is wrong.

註釋

I expect panic and the 3 to be finished today, a small bounce for a few days and then next week the final move.

註釋

USOIL is following the markets, so if we bounce tomorrow, US oil will invalidate this short and we're looking at an ABC to go up and test the bear flag.

註釋

the fact that IWM is strong today also gives me reason to think we bounce tomorrow.

註釋

NQ has reached the morning target and will probably go lower, but I don't like the bull divergences I'm seeing on the smaller time frames. A move down from here is likely, but they may reverse anytine, so I'm not going to risk it. Day is over for me - see you tomorrow.