SPX500 - Did the move truncate? Where is the missing high?

The problem with Elliott Wave Theory like any other is it can be subjective. so no analysis should be taken on just one factor. So I wait for confirmation of a top by way of breaking a line in the sand at 4488. BUT: My sense here is that the move up is a true impulsive move that truncated. This means it ended short of a new top even though it was the final terminal thrust. There is an allowance in EW for this. I also placed an alternate count suggesting a wave 4 and 5 are not complete.

Bottom line for me is this market turns bearish below 4488. And I don't think it can go on to make a high much above 4745!

評論:

The price action staled right around my expectation. The previous wave 4 bottom. Typical EW. This is the part of EW I like. target levels are usually easy to spot. The question of course is where to from here. And ABC (1, 2, 3) zigzag up and renewed thrust lower signals more evidence the bears are in charge. A 5 wave affair (on a lesser degree) upwards to the old top, to me, still potentially represent the medium to long term top and a renewed downside pressure. The Santa Clause rally may still fail.