is this daily rejection from resistance or a bear trap?

SPY and emini es1! futures have signaled the start of daily consolidation for the S&P500, and a rejection from the monthly trendline. this idea is simple. if we confirm a lower monthly high, and the beginning of a reversal by remaining below the pivot i would aim for sss supports and lower horizontals. if we remain rangebound, and break out above pivot i would aim for upper horizontals. this resistance is stiff, and it would not be surprising to see SPXL a good 4-8% lower here. im tracking the underlying index with SPY, but the instrument i would use is SPXL. if we gap up id wager intraday turns bearish, and if we gap down i would look to close that gap with bearish activity to follow.