Look at the chart...then look at your portfolio...then look at the chart again.
Where do you think TLT is heading? Every time JNK/TLT touched the trendline, a TLT rally followed it, 4 times in the past 13 years. Do you think it will happen a 5th?
30Y at zero is something like ~200 on TLT, this is the best ROI trade right now IMO. Yes it will take a year or two, and if it happens sooner, then great! :)
No need to make comparisons to 1929...too many different factors at play. However, we also had a similar setup when YoY inflation was high back in 2007 with housing at all time highs... and remember where that ended up? ;)
Not saying anything will happen next week...but as a long term investor this is my bid over the next year.
If 13 year downward trendline breaks on JNK/TLT, I'm out of TLT...but until then...
Where do you think TLT is heading? Every time JNK/TLT touched the trendline, a TLT rally followed it, 4 times in the past 13 years. Do you think it will happen a 5th?
30Y at zero is something like ~200 on TLT, this is the best ROI trade right now IMO. Yes it will take a year or two, and if it happens sooner, then great! :)
No need to make comparisons to 1929...too many different factors at play. However, we also had a similar setup when YoY inflation was high back in 2007 with housing at all time highs... and remember where that ended up? ;)
Not saying anything will happen next week...but as a long term investor this is my bid over the next year.
If 13 year downward trendline breaks on JNK/TLT, I'm out of TLT...but until then...
評論:
Thesis and wood panelling is holding up well. ;)