Another extremely speculative chart for you guys. You can see that we have structural similarities between the crypto bubble and Amazon share value during the dotcom boom and bust. Amazon corrected around 94% from its then all-time-high, around $110, down to $5.67. The crypto market corrected closer to 90% (many corrected 94-98% individually), but you can see that we exited a downtrend channel and started forming an uptrend channel. Since the uptrend channel has held this year, I'm starting to expect one more leg up for crypto until that uptrend is finally broken. I don't think it would be sustainable for that same 4-year uptrend to hold through an entire new cycle. Instead, I think we'd have "healthier" growth, though parabolic nonetheless. What this chart doesn't tell us is about growth for individual cryptocurrencies. Based on this, one can only try to project where the value of cryptocurrencies as a whole will end up. The future value may include coins that do not exist, and it may not include coins that do exist today.
The yellow squiggle is what could happen within the next 10 years, if cryptocurrencies continue to gain traction. This would put the total market cap somewhere between $10 and $30 Trillion, but it's hard to really know. This is just a loose projection based on another asset that has exhibited similar behavior in the past. It does not mean that the fractal NEEDS to play out. A while ago, I compared Ethereum and Amazon in a similar fashion, but Ethereum underperformed, already breaking down out of its bullish channel, and negating the Amazon fractal.
Zoomed in, you can see the current structural similarities more closely:
In the short term, we could still drop a little bit and consolidate, but If crypto can make it towards the top of the channel one more time, and if it gets near or above the $500B area, I will strongly consider selling some of my positions to rebuy lower and finally take some profit from this ridiculous market.
Of course, this is not financial advice. This is highly speculative and represents only one possibility. I will likely be talking about this in my future updates and videos.
-Victor Cobra
The yellow squiggle is what could happen within the next 10 years, if cryptocurrencies continue to gain traction. This would put the total market cap somewhere between $10 and $30 Trillion, but it's hard to really know. This is just a loose projection based on another asset that has exhibited similar behavior in the past. It does not mean that the fractal NEEDS to play out. A while ago, I compared Ethereum and Amazon in a similar fashion, but Ethereum underperformed, already breaking down out of its bullish channel, and negating the Amazon fractal.
Zoomed in, you can see the current structural similarities more closely:
In the short term, we could still drop a little bit and consolidate, but If crypto can make it towards the top of the channel one more time, and if it gets near or above the $500B area, I will strongly consider selling some of my positions to rebuy lower and finally take some profit from this ridiculous market.
Of course, this is not financial advice. This is highly speculative and represents only one possibility. I will likely be talking about this in my future updates and videos.
-Victor Cobra
評論:
Still consolidating around the REALLY important $230B area. I don't really want to see us have any sort of sustained drop from here and I'd really like to see us get above the 100d and 200d MA simultaneously.
