Bearish on DXY

2024年6月10日

This week we have CPI and US Fed funds rate announcements. Most probably we don't get a rate cut for now (as the market expects). However, I think this week the announcements are coming out with a more dovish tone.

Let's see what happens . . .

If the CPI number come out lower or equal to the expectations and the Fed Chair Powell signals 1 or 2 rate cuts for this year. I believe we can expect the yellow scenario. Otherwise, we can expect the red scenario happens in short term.

2024年6月12日

交易結束：目標達成

The CPI number came lower than expected and it strengthen the rate cut expectations by the US Fed. As a result the DXY and US10Y had a sharp decline and DXY is showing that it wants to follow the yellow scenario.

Let's see what does the FOMC meeting have for us . . .
We can expect a dovish tone in FOMC meeting today. At the time of writing this update the market sees a 60% chance of the first rate cut this September.