indiacharts

Rising bond yields are dollar bearish

TVC:US10Y   美國政府債券10年期收益
The number of classic relationships that I have to debunk just to be on the right side and convince the world is just overboard. And the charts are as straightforward as they can be. So here goes stupidity. Rising bond yields are not dollar bullish, at least not in the time frame of this chart. So when bond yields rise then the dollar actually falls. Yes naturally if I sell US bonds and take my money out of the US, the dollar should fall, right? They why do you expect the opposite? Because some overnight Journo on Bloomberg says so? Or because you were taught this in economics class? Interest rate parity in your Forex lecture. Then you find it very hard to accept or explain the chart below. Or maybe you find periods in the chart when the two are directly correlated to make your point. The answer is simple it is a risk on trade till it is not. The day falling stocks cause bond yields to decline, the dollar will rise and it is time to take risk off the table by reducing your market exposure. Till that happens it is all noise. Weak hands get cleaned out this way. Bond yields started to breakout higher above the 2021 high recently and the dollar fell. This is good for risk assets, unless we see that trend clearly change I do not see a reason to be concerned about incremental changes in bond yields.

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