Update on US long end rates view. YCC or not this is what I think could happen over next 2 years. When I was on the fixed income trading desk at Lehman in '88 we had short end paper that yielded double digits....and given the amount of fiat being printed this could be just the start of the back up in yields
評論:
Worth reminding some folks about the generational bull market for inflation and yields that we have been in since 2020 lows.
We still have many many more years if not decade+ for this to play out.
We still have many many more years if not decade+ for this to play out.
評論:
Long bond 4.75%......5% next target.
Still some folks fighting this, even some old timers who moaned at me weeks ago.
Generational bull market for inflation and yields.
Don't shoot the messenger. I've been short bonds for more than 3 years.
Still some folks fighting this, even some old timers who moaned at me weeks ago.
Generational bull market for inflation and yields.
Don't shoot the messenger. I've been short bonds for more than 3 years.
評論:
Well here we are now at 5.08% and still headed higher.
Folks still trying to fight/fade this move and getting burned.
Medium term target of 5.4% now in sight.
I've been calling this for 3 years. Nearly there. Then PERHAPS we may get a pause/pullback in yields.
BUT BUT BUT
There are many more years to play out in the generational BULL market for inflation and yields.
Folks still trying to fight/fade this move and getting burned.
Medium term target of 5.4% now in sight.
I've been calling this for 3 years. Nearly there. Then PERHAPS we may get a pause/pullback in yields.
BUT BUT BUT
There are many more years to play out in the generational BULL market for inflation and yields.
We may get some indigestion at current levels but ultimately I think we have a date with 4.7% to 5% area in coming quarters.