S&P500 Elliott wave analysis for week starting 24.08.2020

My whole Idea is based on the page III-9 of the book : Robert Balan - Elliott wave principle
there is big debate on the pattern he has provided as many people disagree with a leading triangle as B wave
but the pattern I am seeing highly confirms what is in the book
the triangle we have have impulsive legs 5-3-5-3. this is special type of triangle
the box I have plotted as the reversal zone is based on RSI

評論:

I recommend opening some long position with a very tight stop loss just to compensate the loss if you have some positions like me. I am not expecting to make money from long position it is just for hedging meaning keep my lost constant until it breaks and I will sell the long position

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if we touch the confirmation level then this will be end of wave 5 HOPEFULLY !! hahaha

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I have opened a big short potion my self just now but the stop loss is very tight

評論:

the short position worked . and I close it. might go down for more correction

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I think it is time to get the short guns out :)

評論:

well, as predicted, we are wave 5!

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well. we are "just" at the invalidation level of the triangle , it just didn't touch it

in the lowe time frrame:

is it the reversal time?

評論:

I have opened a short position with stop loss at the invalidation of the triangle
this is also the new wave count in bigger scale:

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I closed my sort position this morning with a little profit.
It seems that we will hit the invalidation level so the triangle idea will invalidated

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I am still bearish. I will give up only when we hit the invalidation level

評論:

we are just bellow the invalidation level and forming a triangle. if it break the confirmation then i will be the ending diagonal and hopefully the last uptrend wave

交易結束：達到停損點:

We hit the invalidation level. the triangle is invalid now. even if it crashed my Idea of having a triangle is not valid anymore.

評論:

All, touch the wood it seems that it is crashing, if it really crashes I am expecting the following targets

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I don't think it can last long, guns out

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Since it has not broke strongly there might be a chance that triangle is still developing

評論:

well the guess was correct and the triangle is not fully unfold yet, this is a common issue with triangles as you can count them as triangle in the early stages.
the current wave up has stopped at 0.618 of wave wave 1
if it reverses to the trend line then we can expect a triangle

Loss compensation method

if you have already short the market like me and you are worried about the loss this is what you have to do:

1- wait for a pull back near the trend line:

add long position (hedge it).
the market will go for wave 5 up
when the market made wave 5 and we see enough evidence that wave 5 is over you can sell you long position with profit or you can keep it and move the stop loss until it breaks even on the breakout
the advantages is the if the market unfold uptrend your long position will pay for your loss.

手動結束交易