AT CURRENT BASELINE 1.3400, THE FED AND THE BOC MANAGED THE USDCAD FOR 7.5 % WIDTH OF MEDIUM TERM TARGET ZONE 1.3400/1.2400 AND WILL BE PROLONGED TO 1.1400 FOR 15 % WIDTH OF MEDIUM TARGET ZONE AND EQUAL TO EURUSD FOR 15 % WIDTH OF MEDIUM TERM EXCHANGE RATE TARGET ZONE.
USDCAD STOP AT 1.2400 FOR 7.5 % WIDTH OF BAND AND CURRENTLY, USDCAD STANDS AT 1.2500 AFTER REBOUND FROM 1.2400 TO 1.2750. THE REBOUND HOWEVER NOT TO REACH HER UPPER MONTHLY BAND FOR SHORT/SELL RECOMMENDATION. HOWEVER THE FOLLOWING TRADE RECOMMENDATION COULD BE MADE AT HIGH RISK:
SHORT USDCAD 1.2500/1.2800
STOP LOSS 1.3050
TARGET 1.1400 (800-900 PIPS)
DURATION: 2-4 MONTHS
RISK TYPE: HIGH RISK
BAND RISK CLASSIFICATION:
MEDIUM TERM BAND - LOWER RISK
SHORT TERM BAND - LOW RISK
MONTHLY TERM BAND - HIGH RISK
WEEKLY BAND - HIGHER RISK
USDCAD STOP AT 1.2400 FOR 7.5 % WIDTH OF BAND AND CURRENTLY, USDCAD STANDS AT 1.2500 AFTER REBOUND FROM 1.2400 TO 1.2750. THE REBOUND HOWEVER NOT TO REACH HER UPPER MONTHLY BAND FOR SHORT/SELL RECOMMENDATION. HOWEVER THE FOLLOWING TRADE RECOMMENDATION COULD BE MADE AT HIGH RISK:
SHORT USDCAD 1.2500/1.2800
STOP LOSS 1.3050
TARGET 1.1400 (800-900 PIPS)
DURATION: 2-4 MONTHS
RISK TYPE: HIGH RISK
BAND RISK CLASSIFICATION:
MEDIUM TERM BAND - LOWER RISK
SHORT TERM BAND - LOW RISK
MONTHLY TERM BAND - HIGH RISK
WEEKLY BAND - HIGHER RISK
評論:
NOT NECESSARY FOR EURUSD TO HANG AT 1.2000 TO WAIT USDCAD TO 1.1400, BUT AS EURUSD WITH 0.00 % INTEREST RATE FOR EUR MANAGED FOR 15 % WIDTH OF BAND THEN USDCAD WILL BE MANAGED FOR THE SAME WIDTH OF BAND. HOW EURUSD RESPONDED TO USDCAD COULD BE EXPRESSED BY EURCAD DIFFERENTIAL TARGET ZONE. KEEP IN MIND, EURUSD MAY TAKE 6-12 MONTHS FOR 15 % WIDTH OF BAND, SIMILAR TOO USDJPY AND USDCHF.
評論:
THE TARGET FOR USDCAD AT 1.1400 IS BASED ON THE MEASUREMENT ON THE PRICE STABILITY. NOT BY THE WIDTH OF ANNUAL CHART OR DAILY CHART, BUT IT IS MEASURED FROM THE BASELINE.