The trend is downward. Locally the pair is in correction.
On the H4 chart a downward impulse is developing within wave C of the higher level. Locally the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii of C seems to have formed, and upward correction (iv) started to develop. If the assumption is correct, after it is finished the pair may continue to fall to the level of 1.2250. A critical level for this scenario may be 1.2620.
Main scenario
One should wait for the end of correction and sell the pair below the level of 1.2620 with target at 1.2250.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 1.2620 will let the pair grow to the level of 1.2760.
On the H4 chart a downward impulse is developing within wave C of the higher level. Locally the third wave of the lower level (iii) of iii of C seems to have formed, and upward correction (iv) started to develop. If the assumption is correct, after it is finished the pair may continue to fall to the level of 1.2250. A critical level for this scenario may be 1.2620.
Main scenario
One should wait for the end of correction and sell the pair below the level of 1.2620 with target at 1.2250.
Alternative scenario
The breakout and the consolidation of the price above the level of 1.2620 will let the pair grow to the level of 1.2760.