Fundamental Analysis of USD/GBP Reveals The Bears Are There

FX_IDC:USDGBP   美元 / 英鎊
Fundamental Analysis of USD/GBP , monthly candle, from 1992 - Present

A week ago I was discussing currency with a peer of mine, and interestingly enough I started to chart currencies of interest that pertained to a particular topic, or point of interest with respect to global economical stability. Ironically, my peer was American, and myself, I am British. I pulled up the weekly, daily and hourly chart for USD/GBP , and was shocked to say the least. Very shocked

Yes, we know many variables can impact upon price/currency reversals however; it became very evident that there was a trend emerging. Not necessarily through quantitative data analysis, but more so, through QUALITATIVE data that was underpinned by fundamentals, historical recessions, psychology and the socio-economics of the world.

On my chart, I have annotated what I perceive to be similar patterns that precipitated a recession historically, potentially occurring now. Also, I identified two loosely formed head and shoulder formations on the:

a/ previous recession of 2007-2009


b/ Now, with it slightly offset from a linear fashion, but with the characteristics of a head and shoulder formation. Hence, a big monthly bearish candle at present.

I am not stating there is a recession inbound, or that there is a 'slow trickle effect' of financial deficit creeping its way through the wood work however; we can not dispute what appears to be an odd re-occurrence in candle pattern movement that appears to be mimicking history, past recession and MOST IMPORTANTLY, a period of news or a new innovative creation that was wrapped up in the previous two recessions.

1981-1982 recession - Caused mainly due to the energy crisis of 1979, with a tight squeeze on monetary policy to stabilize inflation .

2000-2001 recession - Due to a fall in financial investments, the 9//11 attack (god bless the victims, families, friends and America) and, the dot-com bubble. This was recognized as a short recession.

2007-2009 recession - This was complex in nature however; to summarize, a 'housing bubble' which essentially allowed a large sum of capital to be loaned to millions of citizen(s) to purchase property and open businesses, without, safeguarding against failed agreements. This led to many banks closing, with the top investment banking institutes also collapsing, but luckily, were saved.

Present - Playing devils advocate; we are in a new era of 'cryptocurrency', which is not essentially a currency, but more a communication protocol derived from computer algorithms, but, with FIAT applied to it giving it monetary value. Cryptocurrency has been labelled a 'bubble', although I prefer it being the pin, however, if we look back historically where there has been two previous 'bubbles', among international tensions among many intrinsic socio-economic, epidemiology and demographics; it would not be barbaric to question:

Are We Starting to See the Early Warning Indicators?
評論: Hourly view which adds emphasis and depth to my content of discussion

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