Economists look for further sharp Turkish lira depreciation. They forecast the USD/TRY above the 20.00 level in the second quarter of the year.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐬:
“We think that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach well over 20 in Q2. However, this is when we expect the CBRT to start tightening, which should help bring the pair down to around 19 by end-Q2.”
“𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐨 𝐟𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐬.”
“𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑 𝐨𝐧𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬, 𝐡𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫, 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲.”
The Turkish lira halted its depreciation in levels just below the 14.00 mark vs. the US dollar at the end of the week, all amidst a narrow trading range in USD/TRY.
USD/TRY remains poised for extra gains:
USD/TRY seems to have met quite a decent barrier near 14.00 the figure on Friday, although it managed to record new highs for the year, nonetheless.
In the meantime, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐲 𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐞𝐞𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐛𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝟏𝟗-𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐛𝐞𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝟑𝟔% 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 (𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲).
From the Turkish cash markets, yields of the 5y and 10y bonds reverse the recent multi-session weakness and resume the upside to past the 24% mark and just above 23%, respectively. The recent decline in yields have been promoted by purchases of government debt by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) according to latest news.
What to look for around TRY:
The lira resumed the downtrend while market participants continue to digest the recent inflation figures and the government scheme to protect deposits in the domestic currency. The reluctance of the CBRT to change the (collision?) course and the omnipresent political pressure to favour lower interest rates in the current context of rampant inflation and (very) negative real interest rates are forecast to keep the lira under intense pressure for the time being, That said, another visit to the all-time high north of the 18.00 mark in USD/TRY should not be ruled out just yet.
Eminent issues on the back boiler:
Progress (or lack of it) of the new scheme oriented to support the lira. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms. Growth outlook vs. progress of the coronavirus pandemic. Potential assistance from the IMF in case another currency crisis re-emerges. Presidential elections in 2023.
𝐔𝐒𝐃/𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬:
So far, the pair is losing 0.24% at 13.7871 and a drop below 12.7523 (weekly low Jan.3) would pave the way for a test of 11.9694 (55-day SMA) and finally 10.2027 (monthly low Dec.23). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.8967 (YTD high Jan.3) followed by 18.2582 (all-time high Dec.20) and then 19.0000 (round level).
𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬, 𝐢𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝟏𝟏.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 - 𝟏𝟔.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎
- BUYING PRESSURE PRICE 10.2000/11.3000
- Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR BUYERS DECISION PRICE ACTION WITH A SECOND CONFIRMATION.
- Economy BUBBLE has happened or is close to !!
- The outlook and the overall trend for the pair is SO BULLISH .
- 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK.
Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable day.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐬:
“We think that USD/TRY will rise to 16.25 by end-Q1 and breach well over 20 in Q2. However, this is when we expect the CBRT to start tightening, which should help bring the pair down to around 19 by end-Q2.”
“𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐜𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞 𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟐 𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐧𝐨 𝐟𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐩𝐬.”
“𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟑 𝐨𝐧𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬, 𝐡𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫, 𝐩𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐭 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐞𝐭 𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐨𝐧 𝐚 𝐰𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐲.”
The Turkish lira halted its depreciation in levels just below the 14.00 mark vs. the US dollar at the end of the week, all amidst a narrow trading range in USD/TRY.
USD/TRY remains poised for extra gains:
USD/TRY seems to have met quite a decent barrier near 14.00 the figure on Friday, although it managed to record new highs for the year, nonetheless.
In the meantime, 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐢𝐫𝐚 𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐲 𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐝𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐟𝐞𝐞𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤, 𝐰𝐡𝐢𝐜𝐡 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐛𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐟𝐢𝐠𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐚 𝟏𝟗-𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐩𝐞𝐚𝐤 𝐛𝐞𝐲𝐨𝐧𝐝 𝟑𝟔% 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫 𝐭𝐨 𝐃𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 (𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲).
From the Turkish cash markets, yields of the 5y and 10y bonds reverse the recent multi-session weakness and resume the upside to past the 24% mark and just above 23%, respectively. The recent decline in yields have been promoted by purchases of government debt by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) according to latest news.
What to look for around TRY:
The lira resumed the downtrend while market participants continue to digest the recent inflation figures and the government scheme to protect deposits in the domestic currency. The reluctance of the CBRT to change the (collision?) course and the omnipresent political pressure to favour lower interest rates in the current context of rampant inflation and (very) negative real interest rates are forecast to keep the lira under intense pressure for the time being, That said, another visit to the all-time high north of the 18.00 mark in USD/TRY should not be ruled out just yet.
Eminent issues on the back boiler:
Progress (or lack of it) of the new scheme oriented to support the lira. Constant government pressure on the CBRT vs. bank’s credibility/independence. Bouts of geopolitical concerns. Much-needed structural reforms. Growth outlook vs. progress of the coronavirus pandemic. Potential assistance from the IMF in case another currency crisis re-emerges. Presidential elections in 2023.
𝐔𝐒𝐃/𝐓𝐑𝐘 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐥𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬:
So far, the pair is losing 0.24% at 13.7871 and a drop below 12.7523 (weekly low Jan.3) would pave the way for a test of 11.9694 (55-day SMA) and finally 10.2027 (monthly low Dec.23). On the other hand, the next up barrier lines up at 13.8967 (YTD high Jan.3) followed by 18.2582 (all-time high Dec.20) and then 19.0000 (round level).
𝐓𝐞𝐜𝐡𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐮𝐜𝐡 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐝 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐧𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬, 𝐢𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲, 𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝟏𝟏.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 - 𝟏𝟔.𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎
- BUYING PRESSURE PRICE 10.2000/11.3000
- Our option for #USDTRY is TO WAIT FOR BUYERS DECISION PRICE ACTION WITH A SECOND CONFIRMATION.
- Economy BUBBLE has happened or is close to !!
- The outlook and the overall trend for the pair is SO BULLISH .
- 𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK.
Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you.
Thank you for your time.
Have a profitable day.
| Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
交易進行
交易進行
Bid 13.7477
Day's Range 13.715-13.9399
Open 13.8722
Ask 13.8821
52 wk Range 6.8882-18.3674
1-Year Change 88.86%