MACRO - USOIL - EW Forecast

2021年3月18日

Bearish Model forecast for USOIL:
- Global economy will see downturn.
- Economic stagnation, possible deflation.
- Energy disruption.
- Financial and currency disruption.
- Oil inventories will be worthless after military conflicts are over.

GLHF
- DPT

2021年3月21日

評論

Q: History has shown us that recessions usually accompany a rise in oil prices .. intraday market analysis 101 .. what do you think..

A: yet US oil prices were 13 cents per barrel in 1931 during the Great Depression... During true economic weakness, America simply cannot have oil prices be high... It is rather interesting, because oil prices tumbling here would suggest that new oil fields have been "discovered", perhaps in Iran...

2021年3月21日

評論

DPT:

Ah, I thank you Stefan, my friend. Because of your objections, I think I have found the geopolitical catalyst that will lead the energy economy for the next few years. Another piece of the puzzle...

Anti-US interests - Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Iraq–Syria_pipeline

US interests - Greece-Cyprus-Israel EastMed pipeline:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EastMed_pipeline

I was wondering why so much US interest in Greece, and this narrative fits!

Should this pipeline be completed in 2025, I do think oil inventories may be flooded initially, and investors may frontrun this event.

As the US completes another offshore oil campaign, another one of my trade campaigns begins...