VIX at the daily view.
Whelp, I said shorting UVXY would be easier than longing it because UVXY and VXX are based on the VIX futures (not spot VIX). I get messages from permabears that say they shouldn't worry about backwardation and the premium wouldn't eat the profits that much. Election volatility will cover the outrageous premium or some bad headline will crash the market. What they demonstrated is that they only accept data that matches their permabear bias. They ignored every other factor that runs counter to their perma-bias. Out of the 15 factors that I consider, 13 of them are leaning bullish. Now, the same permabears are definitely VIX or short bagholders. Of course, the permabears would lie to me saying that their trades and accounts are doing fine.
Real traders do not care which direction that they profit from. Real traders know that they should trade based on what the market are now and not what they want it to be.
Here is a very big lesson in trading. There are 4 major factors in trading. By priority order, they are price action, internal market data (liquidity and breadth), market cycles (time), and sentiment (news). If your short positions are relying on the hope of a bad news and NOT on the first 3 factors, then you are already on the wrong side of the trade. Permabears mock hope or "hopium." Ironically, their short positions rely on the hope of some random bad news (also called gambling). You only short when all 3 factors favor shorting - not the other way around. Here's a good example. The President contracted COVID. The first 3 factors turned bullish. The news was bearish. Price action, internal data, and time will always triumph over news.
There should be a small VIX spike either by the end of this week or early next week. The election volatility is making the VIX float higher and thus messing with my timeline. If the VIX doesn't spike soon, then it will enter into that volatility dance that I wrote earlier. Meaning, the VIX might go into "hibernation" for a while.
Whelp, I said shorting UVXY would be easier than longing it because UVXY and VXX are based on the VIX futures (not spot VIX). I get messages from permabears that say they shouldn't worry about backwardation and the premium wouldn't eat the profits that much. Election volatility will cover the outrageous premium or some bad headline will crash the market. What they demonstrated is that they only accept data that matches their permabear bias. They ignored every other factor that runs counter to their perma-bias. Out of the 15 factors that I consider, 13 of them are leaning bullish. Now, the same permabears are definitely VIX or short bagholders. Of course, the permabears would lie to me saying that their trades and accounts are doing fine.
Real traders do not care which direction that they profit from. Real traders know that they should trade based on what the market are now and not what they want it to be.
Here is a very big lesson in trading. There are 4 major factors in trading. By priority order, they are price action, internal market data (liquidity and breadth), market cycles (time), and sentiment (news). If your short positions are relying on the hope of a bad news and NOT on the first 3 factors, then you are already on the wrong side of the trade. Permabears mock hope or "hopium." Ironically, their short positions rely on the hope of some random bad news (also called gambling). You only short when all 3 factors favor shorting - not the other way around. Here's a good example. The President contracted COVID. The first 3 factors turned bullish. The news was bearish. Price action, internal data, and time will always triumph over news.
There should be a small VIX spike either by the end of this week or early next week. The election volatility is making the VIX float higher and thus messing with my timeline. If the VIX doesn't spike soon, then it will enter into that volatility dance that I wrote earlier. Meaning, the VIX might go into "hibernation" for a while.
評論:
And UVXY got absolutely crushed to $17.