Silver 1980 vs 2011 Bear & Bull Market Comparison Analysis

I think and hope I have labeled the chart clear enough to understand what my points are.

Observations and discussion points are as follows:

+ Looking at the MACD, RSI 200 MA and candles, it would not be unreasonable to believe there is more down time ahead.
+ Buying silver when the RSI is oversold (30) on the monthly chart is not a bad good idea as twice before, a bull market has followed.
+ Patience though understanding is critical.

I am just an amateur sharing my observations, it is NOT financial advice.

評論:

1971 ~ 1980 Bull run: 9 years
1980 ~ 1993 Bear market: 13 years (44.4% longer than the bull run)

1993 ~ 2011 Bull run: 18 years
2011 ~ 2018 Bear market: 7 years and counting (18 years + 44.4% = 26 years (2037)

評論:

No. My above comment is inaccurate and over simplified. Here is how it should be calculated:

1971~1980 bull run: x28.69
1980~1993 bear market: -89.31%

1993~2011 bull run: x13.43
2011~2018 bear market: because this bull run was 53.20% less than the previous, the bear market should also be so 89.31% - 53.20% = 36.11% and we are currently at 31.10% so not far to go!!

評論:

My maths isn't the best but I get there in the end. The last part of the sentence above from "and we are..." is not correct. It SHOULD read: ... and we are currently at -69% so we are way past that. However, I personally wouldn't rely on this factor to predict anything, just an interesting observation.

評論:

I personally think RSI, 200 MA and candles are more reliable to predict and thus silver needs to become oversold on the monthly before anything else.