MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM PART 3, TIME TO PROVE IT
已更新
HEADER - If you are long sell 1855-ISH from now to 12/13. Long 1790-1800 on 12/22. Short 1960-70 (especially anything above 1970) on January 6th, COVER AHEAD OF 20th, 2023.
SUMMARY - The most updated regressions call for 1865 AHEAD OF FOMC NEXT WED, followed by rug pull. THE PRICE ACTION FOLLOWING THAT RUG PULL IS FINAL DETERMINANT OF THIS BINARY OUTCOME. Whichever the case maybe, I am determined to prove utility for my research by 01/04, 01/20 at the latest.
VERTICAL DATE MARKERS
a) red is 12/09 PPI, orange is 12/13 CPI
b) blue is 12/14 FOMC, dashed-blue is 01/04 FED MINUTES
c) yellow is 12/23? new moon, bold yellow is 12/06 new moon
d) gray is 01/04 ADP and black is 01/06 NFP
IN CHART ABOVE -
a) the decisive price action is the long blue box
b) if price stays above this for that duration, that strongly favors long outcome
c) if price stays inside inside this box for that duration, that favors bear outcome to an extent
d) if price stays UNDER that box for that duration, that strongly favors bear outcomee
e) starting 2/19 the moves are almost mirror images of each other by accident (I arrived at them seprarately)
STRATEGY -
a) long first bold box with breakeven insurance 0R
b) this is a massive straddle situation
DETAILS - As always I link the most recent posts below for background.
a) the last 3 posts I posted were supplement for part 2B, basically variation of the same move to an expected top on 12/22
b) I also introduced a super bullish out come THAT I ALREADY DISPROVED yesterday
c) however I had not consider a "delayed" super bullish outcome until late last night
d) as I am writing this, I have the bullish out come as 55/45 with major inflection from now THROUGH NEXT WED'S FOMC
f) why so?
g) the reason is the spread of price action forecasts have price ABOVE THAT LONG BLUE BOX
h) and the next logical setup for that is the unthinkable, immediate one long to 1970
i) the reason I don't have the odds favoring bulls even more is that this move looks SO STRANGE...
j) BUT NOT IF YOU CONSIDER THE BREAK OF 1680 in the summer in regression context
k) because price has to recover confidence lost in that new low
k) this also is the route that puts new low under 1615 out of all reasonable extrapolations for A LONG TIME
HOW WE GOT HERE - To summarize where we've been since September:
1) in September I was still writing "GOLD CRASH ENDING" series
2) on October 3rd, I started "RUMORS OF A PIVOT DRAFT 1"
3) on October 19th, I wrote "TO SUM IT UP" series to explain the number of possible outcomes in Q4 2022
4) on November 6-7, I wrote "RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 2 & 3
5) prior November, I was inches from quitting IRL development
6) when I realized the opportunity of a 3-year gold bull coming to 3600-4000 in mid-November...
7) I started writing my last series "MY AMERICAN DREAM" as final attempt to fulfill a personal dream
a) on 11/17 I began PART 1 - THE REAL PIVOT
b) on 12/01 I began PART 2A- PIVOT IS IN
c) on 12/06 I began PART 2B - ENTRY (short) IN 12 TRADING DAYS
d) as a result of new information I have in the last 36 hours, today (12/08) I begin PART 3, TIME TO PROVE IT
e) this is to say I intend to prove the utility/value of the the work that has taken 7 years
f) this series will last at least through 01/06, maybe until 01/20, that is 4-6 weeks
SUMMARY - The most updated regressions call for 1865 AHEAD OF FOMC NEXT WED, followed by rug pull. THE PRICE ACTION FOLLOWING THAT RUG PULL IS FINAL DETERMINANT OF THIS BINARY OUTCOME. Whichever the case maybe, I am determined to prove utility for my research by 01/04, 01/20 at the latest.
VERTICAL DATE MARKERS
a) red is 12/09 PPI, orange is 12/13 CPI
b) blue is 12/14 FOMC, dashed-blue is 01/04 FED MINUTES
c) yellow is 12/23? new moon, bold yellow is 12/06 new moon
d) gray is 01/04 ADP and black is 01/06 NFP
IN CHART ABOVE -
a) the decisive price action is the long blue box
b) if price stays above this for that duration, that strongly favors long outcome
c) if price stays inside inside this box for that duration, that favors bear outcome to an extent
d) if price stays UNDER that box for that duration, that strongly favors bear outcomee
e) starting 2/19 the moves are almost mirror images of each other by accident (I arrived at them seprarately)
STRATEGY -
a) long first bold box with breakeven insurance 0R
b) this is a massive straddle situation
DETAILS - As always I link the most recent posts below for background.
a) the last 3 posts I posted were supplement for part 2B, basically variation of the same move to an expected top on 12/22
b) I also introduced a super bullish out come THAT I ALREADY DISPROVED yesterday
c) however I had not consider a "delayed" super bullish outcome until late last night
d) as I am writing this, I have the bullish out come as 55/45 with major inflection from now THROUGH NEXT WED'S FOMC
f) why so?
g) the reason is the spread of price action forecasts have price ABOVE THAT LONG BLUE BOX
h) and the next logical setup for that is the unthinkable, immediate one long to 1970
i) the reason I don't have the odds favoring bulls even more is that this move looks SO STRANGE...
j) BUT NOT IF YOU CONSIDER THE BREAK OF 1680 in the summer in regression context
k) because price has to recover confidence lost in that new low
k) this also is the route that puts new low under 1615 out of all reasonable extrapolations for A LONG TIME
HOW WE GOT HERE - To summarize where we've been since September:
1) in September I was still writing "GOLD CRASH ENDING" series
2) on October 3rd, I started "RUMORS OF A PIVOT DRAFT 1"
3) on October 19th, I wrote "TO SUM IT UP" series to explain the number of possible outcomes in Q4 2022
4) on November 6-7, I wrote "RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 2 & 3
5) prior November, I was inches from quitting IRL development
6) when I realized the opportunity of a 3-year gold bull coming to 3600-4000 in mid-November...
7) I started writing my last series "MY AMERICAN DREAM" as final attempt to fulfill a personal dream
a) on 11/17 I began PART 1 - THE REAL PIVOT
b) on 12/01 I began PART 2A- PIVOT IS IN
c) on 12/06 I began PART 2B - ENTRY (short) IN 12 TRADING DAYS
d) as a result of new information I have in the last 36 hours, today (12/08) I begin PART 3, TIME TO PROVE IT
e) this is to say I intend to prove the utility/value of the the work that has taken 7 years
f) this series will last at least through 01/06, maybe until 01/20, that is 4-6 weeks
評論
NOTES 1) EARLY TRADE RESEARCHa) based on current math there is a 60:1 straddle on 12/22
b) we start with Gold futures options (GC/GCZ'"?)
c) entry 12/22 at 1790-1800, so let's say 1795
d) long entry +65 with GC 12/30 1860 calls and simultaneously
e) short short entry -65 with GC 12/30 1730 puts
f) exit longs at 1960, cover shorts at 1640
g) cost of each option should be $80, so both them would be $160
h) exit long would be 10000, and short would be 9000
g) return at 1960 would be 62:1, return at 1650 would be 56:1
h) ROI would be 59.37 to 1
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