Binary_Forecasting_Service的FXOPEN:XAUUSD的MQP PRESENTS NFP BINARY OUTCOME

MQP PRESENTS NFP BINARY OUTCOME

HEADER - Bulls and bears have short term equilibrium at 1935. It's going to break tomorrow like this.

SUMMARY - I can't handicap this one. My gut say long. But that's all I have.

DETAILS - So everything under 2 days favor bulls some what. Everything from there to 28 days favor bears. Everything higher favor bulls. The whole picture favor bulls. But it also favored bulls the 10 days preceding ADP (2 days ago). Dont' have time to play by play this one. So take it for what it's worth.

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NOTE 1 - DAY TRADE STRATEGY FOR THIS ONE, EXPERIENCE REQUIRED
1) wait until 7:20 AM ET
2) use futures options
3) buy same day expiration (meaning expiring at 1:30 PM ET on Friday)
4) so you have 6 hours before expiration
5) buy even number of calls and puts +/- 5 vs current price
6) ex: so if price is 1935, buy 4 1940 calls and 4 1930 puts
7) the 2 way vol is showing +/-20
8) entry price would be about $2.00 (4+4)x2=$!6 entry
9) but way vol is showing $20, but it only needs to hit $8 1 way TO BREAK EVEN BY SELLING HALF OF ENTRY
10) so after buying immediately sell 1/2 of both calls and options for 4x entry price
11) in this example, sell 2 calls and 2 puts both for $8
12) SO ONLY 1 NEED TO HIT TO BREAK EVEN BY SELLING HALF
13) BOTH MAY HIT
14) if they do both hit, you'd be up 100% with half left to do whatever you want with

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*** TYPO *** should be 16 entry, not !6 entry

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*** TYPO *** 9) but 2-way vol... (not just vol)

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15) in theory if $20 does hit (so either 1915 or 1955)
16) you'd be up ANOTHER 250% on top w/ either remaining calls or puts
17) at $11 in either direction sell the losing options to pay for contract costs
18) meaning at 1924 (sell losing calls) or 1946 (sell losing puts) would exit points for that

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FRI 8/4 8:43 AM ET
1) so as I thought last night, see notes from previous post
2) spike down first
3) then all the way up
4) need 1954 close for bull route to go
5) I sold both calls and puts (see strategy above)
6 and bought 8/16 1980 calls

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9:40 AM ET

1) so whats the ceilingn now for 8/15?
2) 21xx

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3) and probably 2110 or 2120
4) because we have lost 4 days
5) why can't those 4 days be after 8/15?
6) it can, but the 72 day wave that turns it up...
7) complete no later than 8/16

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8) so some shorter trends will still be out of position by that time
9) and generally speaking
10) they then attempt reversion
11) so this case trend 28 to 36 will still be out of order at max vol
12) can't chart this one because the move is extreme for only 12 days left

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23) continuing at 10:15 am
24) if I charted this one, it woulld just be equidistant boxes like this:

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25) that's the generic look of the move
26) and first move to this line here, is probably first top:

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10:52 PM ET
1) price action after 1:30 PM ET important
2) if we are going to get this right, we need to close 1954

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6,46 PM ET incredibly frustrating close

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SUNDAY 8/6 9:06 AM ET
1) consider:

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1) in chart above: red and blue arrows are same exact size
2) first 3 dates are 3 tops
3) the 4th top here is going to be 8/15/23
4) odds now favor a 4th rejection from 2070-2100, closer to 2070, ON 8/15/23
5) the red arrow expires ON 8/6/23, BUT THE LAST DATE IS 10/13/23 becasuse....
6) odds are are SO STRONG now that 2080 BREAKS FINALLY BY 8/6/23
7) and that rally TOP BY 10/13/23

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8) so here we are now:

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SUN, 8/6, 11:18 AM ET
1) consider:

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2) why did I:
a) build a long position to for 10 days until 1943.5 w/ 1940 stop
b) raise stop to 1943.5
c) then shorted, trippled short, trippled short again
d) then cover
e) then straddled 1935
f) then sold straddle
g) then went long again
3) to answer these questions and put this to rest:
a) bc the setup was showing explosive move up with a minimum of 2080 getting hit 2-3 times (this continued to be true during my stop out and short, 3x short, then 9x short)
b) look at point A in chart above, point B was showing (for the very short term of 24-72 hours) a strong possibility of repeating point A, with roughly 1% vol IF 1943.5 gave out that morning
c) SO OF COURSE I GO SHORT, AND 3X SHORT, AND 9X SHORT and I posted it as soon as I did it
d) covered (and I said it) because the short term approached 50/50 (while the intermediate to long term was still bull)
e), f), g) see notes above in strategy

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3) you have to be able to HOLD OPPOSING POINT OF VIEWS SIMULTANEOUSLY
4) especially, specifically, on stuff lasting for days only (crazy %*&3# happen all the time)

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11:44 AM ET, THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE'S NEXT 10 TRADING DAYS: