Binary_Forecasting_Service的FX_IDC:XAUUSD的MQP PRESENTS NEW ATH BY AUGUST 1ST

MQP PRESENTS NEW ATH BY AUGUST 1ST

HEADER - From the ashes of failure I have returned to bring you new ATH by 08/01/2003. All this, 14 days out.

SUMMARY - Regressions from micro, short, medium, intermediate, long, very long, and all time added together say this will happen to a very high degree of confidence.

DETAILS - See previous post for how we got here.

STRATEGY - If you are frisky, short the drop beginning This Thursday into next Tuesday. Otherwise, long on FOMC on 7/26 and exit 08/01.

NOTES 1 - Per usual will add much mre as we go along. 4-HOUR CONTINUOUS TRACKING will start on Wednesday 7/26's FOMC date.

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NOTES 2 - I lost a box between first and second box to show a drop to 1950. Somehow deleted probably. But yeah, there should be one more box there.

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NOTES 3 - Previous post showed higher and later like 2200+ at 08/15-16.
a) yeah, let's see this play to full moon first, which is 08/01 right around there
b) will get to that part if and when
c) this much though - in this draft - is forecasteable

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NOTES 4 - Here is what that missing box looks like:

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a) why is this box important, the second one in the chart above?
b) it's the signal for the Thursday night into Tuesday morning drop
c) something like 1975 to 1925

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NOTES 5 - RAISE FLOOR, AND 2200 STILL IN PLAY FOR 08/15.
a) so first, here is some update to this chart:

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b) there were two hilights in the chart at top
c) I put in the second one to say that the low may not be that low
d) I can say now that it's not likely to go that low, 1935 is more likely
e) second, if you zoom out in chart above you'll see this big box:

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f) continuing with chart above:
g) I double and tripple checked my work, it really does say 2200 is in play by 08/15
h) it just seems so aggressive considering what we've been through since we hit 2070 the second time in 2022

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i) continuing...
j) meaning people are thinking this:

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k) or this:

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l) my regressions are saying this:

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m) here's what that looks like on 30-min bar:

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WED 7/19 10.45 AM ET
1. so we need 1762 or less today
2. in order to expect 1930 by next Tuesday or Wednesday

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3. if we don't get that low today
4. it raises the floor next week to 1940s
5. the first real drop should be this Friday to 1945 or 1950

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6. Thursday night though, you should still expect 1980

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7. meanwhile, I have disproved 2200 high
8. It should be 2145 high by 8.01.23

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9. nothing else interesting until at least 7.25 Tuesday ahead of FOMC

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10. I saw 1969 10 min ago...
11. not low enough, has to be 1962 or lower

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ALMOST 9 PM ET, WED 7/19
1. all micro trends say 1 more high above 1984
2. in next 12 hours

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THURS 7/20, 4:10 AM ET, 1979.XX
1) so hit that new high 1986-1987 and pulled back
2) during daytime US markets, we should get ONE MORE NEW HIGH
3) AND THE FIRST DROP DOWN
4) THIS WILL BE A FAKE OUT
5) so in 28 hours from now
6) meaning 8:10 AM ET FRIDAY, we will STILL BE ROUGHLY 1980
7) before the week is out, end of Friday, we should be 1950

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6:10 AM ET, 3 HOURS LATER, 1982
1) odds of new high have dropped noticeably
2) it still favored for 4 hours or so
3) after that, bears should be favored

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10:17 AM ET
1) see STRATEGY section at top
2) well today is Thursday
3) so at 6:10 I said 4 hours for bears to take over
4) since u can't trade first move at 8:10, the first tradeable short was 9:10
5) so basically bears are in control through from now to all of Tuesday
6) but the one trade worth trading in this zone is Friday vertical drop
7) meaning what ever bearish action today will likely be bought
8) and we head into Friday 7:30 AM ET mini waterfall NFP-STYLE
9) that's it

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12:11 PM ET
1. 1965 looks like it for today?
2. fractal patterns say yes
3. regressions not so sure, 60/40 floor is in

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1:12 PM ET CHART FORT NEXT 28 HOURS LOOK LIKE THIS:

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FRI 7/21, 6.11 AM ET. 1963.XX FROM 1960 LOW
1) moved down early overnight
2) everything else on track overall
3) we should get a bounce around 1957
4) and then attempt 1945 or lower today

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5) wait a second...
6) instead of bouncing at 1957
7) we should BOUNCE TO 1966 AND THEN DIE
8) makes more sense that way

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9) continuing at 6:33 AM ET
10) the low, whatever it is going to be is likely to get hit BEFORE NOON ET
11) maybe even before 11 AM ET

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12) we have a real shot of a 1935 low
13) anything under 1935 is A VERY STRONG BUY FOR AN 11 DAY TIME FRAME

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14) continuing at 7:50 AM ET, 1966.xx
15) this is a good spot to short
16) in theory, we can spike to 1969
17) that would change things a bit
18) that would make 1945 for more likely than 1935 for today's floor

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19. IF IT DOES MOVE TO 1969 AND STAYS THERE FOR 30-40 MINUTES
20. THEN 1951 WOULD BE MORE LIKELY THAN 1945 BEFORE 11 AM ET
21. after 11 AM ET there's incoming trend change

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2:49 PM ET 1963.xx
1. so it hit 1968 and moved to 1957ish 3 times
2. obvious too late now for 1945 or even 1951, which is the real head scratcher
3. that means Sun to Wed morning should feature tests of 1985 area again...
4. anyway THIS POST HAS ENDED
5. why?
6. because I realized that the only way to be correct is to watch ALL THE TIME
7. the posts I make only have value if I give constant updates

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THIS POST HAS ENDED.
PLEASE DONT USE IT FOR DECISION MAKING ANYMORE.
NO SUPPORT WILL BE PROVIDED.

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7/25 10:55 AM ET, THIS POST RE-OPENED ON A 12-HOUT UPDATE EXPIRATION
1) this means that updates are only good for 12 maybe 16 hours
2) with that said 1951.xx finally hit
3) floor should be in
4) right now 1960.xx
5) ceiling pre FOMC is 1968
6) ceiling Wed night 1987
7) ceiling Thursday 2020

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8) should price break 1969 convincingly BEFORE FOMC,
9) then odds of price out performing forecasted hilight in chart at top increases....
10) VERY meaningfully as it also has out performed forecasted hi light for the last 7 days
11) that is to say the set up holds true for CONTINUOUSLY VERTICAL BULLISH PRICE ACTION for a minimum of 5 days and a maximum of 23 days
12) please keep in mind that I read as I see it, and this position holds true for 12-16 hours until I reconfirm

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13. that is in effect saying that forecasts are only good if price cooperates
14. while that seems like a lost cause, I don't have enough time to handicap theoretical...
15. volatily and continuously provide up to date theoretical binary outcomes ...
16. which is essentially the perfect tool for daily price forcasting

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17. continuing at 12:11 PM ET, 1965.XX
18. odds of breaking abovee 1969 at least 3 in 4
19, ceiling would be 1980-2

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20. continuing at 2:44 PM ET
21. odds of breaking 1969 by 2 AM ET WED is 5 in 8
22. odds of breaking 1969 convincingly, negligible

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23. continuing at 9:04 AM ET
24. 1969.xx as I type

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25. it broke above 1969 at 2:22 AM ET, got 1974 high overnight
26. so as it is, we are set up for explosive move up, but from where?
27. 1958-1962 looks like FOMC swing low before moving up furiously
28. if life was easy, we would simply drift and drip to 2PM ET and explode up
29. since it reality is strange let's consider some other patterns

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30. so drift and drip to 1960-ish and explode is PLAN A
31. drifting UP to 1980 By 1 PM ET, swing wildly, and then explode up is PLAN B

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32. all other bull scenarios with PREFOMC 1980 ceiling and 1958 floor finishing with explosion up is PLAN C

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33. so what's the case for bears scenario?
34. from yesterday afternoon, I noted that odds of breaking 1969 "CONVINCINGLY" was low, I noted that odds of breaking 1969 by itself was 5/8 ...
35. CONVINCINGLY meant that 1980-2 would get tag and then make 1965+ the floor for today
36. that did not happen
37. fair odds on bear outcome today from linear regression perspective is 1 in 5

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38. bear odds start climbing quickly after FOMC if price holds under 1974
39. in theory, any bearish price action would stall in 5 trading days AND THEN EXPLODE UP

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40. because the setup is so strong, I can't detail what that would LOOK LIKE on a chart...
41. until I see the first reaction stall... whenever that maybe
42. that's all for now

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43. continuing at11:20 AM ET, 1973.xx, 160 minutes from FOMC
44. earlier it looked like a higher vol PLAN A
45. now starting to look like an even higher vol PLAN B
46. or maybe just PLAN C... who knows until then
47. I'm drafting PLAN D right now bc I'm paranoid
48. and honestly it just wouldn't surprise me if price wound up like a triangle.for another 96 hours

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49. will post what that look like before FOMC
50. in the meantime if your TF is 3 weeks or longer, any entry under 1965 is excellent RR

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51. continuing at 12:18 PM ET, 102 min before fomc 1971.xx
52. this is PLAN D, if we don't go vertically up today, (then we will on Wed 08/02)

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53. there's one error, it should be like this:

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54. continuing at 1:27 PM ET, 33 min to FOMC
55. I don't know how to handicap this, but PLAN D odds are climbing
56. not a favorite right now, roughly 30-40%, for this specific pattern

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57. continuing at 1:45 PM ET, 1970.xx
58. vol on first reaction (60 min window) has ceiling at 1974 and floor at 1964...

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59. no wait, floor at 1962
60. fair reading for next 75-120 minutes of price action is:
61. first reaction is spike to 1974-1975, but IT CANNOT STALL
62. if it stalls...
63. second reaction is 1961-1962
64. if "fade the first move on FOMC day" strategy holds true...
65. then this means that we are goin to get some version of PLAN D
66. please take everything from notes 57. to 65. with some salt
67. I am seeing this on 15- and 30-second bars
68. I do not know if it is valid because there is simply no time to cross check the work

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69. FWIW that puts floor between 2 AND 4 PM ET AT 1955-56

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70. 2:12 PM during FOMC 1970.xx
71. so first reaction was 1965-ish
72. then 1974

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73. NO, 1973... now 1969.xx
74. BARRING NO SURPRISES DURING POWELL SPEECH
75. and please understand that's A COMPLETELY REGULAR THING
76. looks like 1958 gets tagged before New York closes in 105 minutes

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77. 2:21 PM ET... I gotta run
78. so BASE CASE IS NOW PLAN D
79. with floor around 1955 rest of today (until midnight ET)
80. UNLESS POWELL DOES SOMETHING CRAZY DURIN HIS SPEECH
81. AND AGAIN (THIS HAS BEEN KNOWN TO HAPPEN)
82. in the case that we get a QUAD REVERSAL (first down, second up, third down, 4th BACK ALL THE WAY UP)...
82. it's ok to go long now IF YOUR WINDOW IS AT LEAST 21 LIVE DAYS (3 WEEKS, 15 TRADING DAYS)
83. if you are shorting this move down
84. don't get greedy after 1958

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85. 2:26 PM ET, 1968.xx LAST NOTE FOR TODAY
86. on 15-second bar chart
87. floor (around 1955-1959), should get hit in 69 minutes
88. or roughly 3:30 PM ET
89. have a good night

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90. 2:36 PM ET QUAD REVERSAL IS ON
91. I AM TOTAL LONG

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92. 2:37 PM ET 1971.xx, I have to get going
93. on 15-second bar chart, it is saying that we are going to get that quad reversal up
94. I am totally long (but with back up in case of shenanigans)
95. my time frame is also at least 21 days out

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96. 2:40 PM ET 1976.30 AND CLIMBING AND CLIMBING
97. so there it is
98. AND I ALMOST LEFT TOO!
99. this is what I meant last week when I said YOU HAVE TO WATCH ALL THE TIME...
100. to be correct all the time, see you guys later

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101. I gotta go to a funeral service, that's why I can't update
102. but FWIW, BARRING NO MORE SUPRISES (and never, never say never)
103. ceiling before NY closes is ABOVE 1988
104. ceiling before MIDNIGHT THURS INTO FRI is roughly 2025

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12:03 AM ET THURSDAY 7/27 QUICK UPDATE
1. first, consider:

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2. for chart above:
3. that arrow is pointing to the tag of 1981-1982 moments ago
4. since I left off in the afternoon, PRICE ACTION HAS BEEN VERY DISAPPOINTING
5. but not entirely unexpected
6. my suspicions were that the route maybe EVEN SLOWER THE HILIGHT IN CHART ABOVE

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7. I just didn't have time to meshe it all out
8. I don't have time right now either so I'll keep this brief
9. the window for my trade is now 20 days out
10. so I am willing to hold my longs until 08/16 OR 2140+(possibly much higher)
11. unless I see vertical price action straight to the UPTREND LINE RESISTANCE ABOVE...
12. its a hold through and through for me
13. this is because the setup demands it
14. I have been in this situation several times and that's how I am going to play it
15. that's all for tonight

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9:17 AM ET, 1956.xx DOUBLED MY LONG POSITION
1. at the DR for my kids ortho
2 . no time to update
3. get long here, you will thank me in 3 weeks

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Thursday 7/27 1:03 PM ET UPDATE 1943.xx
1. first, I added a third entry just now, which trippled my long
2. this is so far 1/3 of my entire trading funds
3. so I have 2/3 to add IF I ADD AGAIN, an I think I will from here to next Tuesday
4. current expectations are:

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a) this move down was a surprise only because I've been so busy with a close member's funeral service, he died 10 days ago, so it's been kind of hectic
b) with that said, I am prepared to add again if it dips to 1935 and 1925
c) that puts my SL at 1920
d) what is the absolute longest length of time, that this dip and zig zag will take before we see this "explosive continuously vertical move up" that I keep talking about?
e) night of August 1st and morning of August 2nd

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f) have my targets of 2140-2200 for 8/16-8/17 changed?
g) no, not one bit
h) the only issue is how we get there

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i) continuing at 1:22 PM ET
k) here's what that would look like:

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l. continuing at 2:32 PM ET 1945.xx
m. sold off previous entry at 1943
n. don't like specific ratios not making sense

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3:46 PM ET CLOSE ALL LONGS AT A LOSS
1. I can't understand why that move would happen all the way to 1942
2. AND ALSO NOT BOUNCE TO 1968 AN HOUR AGO
3. so the vol range I am getting for 8/16 is 1620 to 2220
4. so until I get more info on this... I am confused AF

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9:32 PM ET, 7/27
1) re entry for longs sold at 3:46 PM at 1946.xx moments ago
2) had to make sure we weren't getting a move to 1800 and 1625
3) back to previous plan

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4) for the record that puts me in 2/9, not 1/3 of funds
5) I see THE TOTAL COMMITMENT on next Tuesday

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6) that's it for tonight
7) I don't expect anything exciting until late Tuesday

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11:12 PM ET, 7/27, STILL THURSDAY NIGHT
1) someone asked me how I can "make sure" we were NOT getting a move to 1800 and 1625
2) better yet, how can I even see that from this position?
3) so here's a quick snap shot of my method
4) so first, we can agree short term trends lead long term trends
5) meaning, if it's bullish, the 5 day moving average should lead the 10 day
6) and the 10 should lead the 20, the 20 should lead the 50, the 50 should lead 100
7) and the 100 period MA should lead the 200 period MA and so on and on and on
8) second, we can agree that LRC works better than SMA, EMA, VWMA, whatever have you
9) if you disagree on this (LRC vs any type of MA), you're just being silly or you don't have enough experience yet

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10) and by "lead" I mean lead up for bulls and lead down for bears
11) so here's a question: what if the 10 leads the 50 UP, at the same the same time that...
12) the 20 leads the 60 DOWN??

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13) and how you would you "handicap" odds for those things?
14) I do that by watching various "ratios" of trend/momentum, as much as possible
15) meaning I watch 5 vs. 10 vs 20 vs 40 vs 80 vs 160 and...
16) 15 vs 30 vs 60 vs 120 vs 240 and...
17) 25 vs 50 vs 100 vs 200 vs 400 and...
18) 35 vs 70 vs 140 vs 280 vs 560 and on and on and on ...

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19) for the 216-day LRC wave, we have a bearish setup in progress that suggests 1800 and 1650
20) BUT ONLY IF YOU LOOK AT IT VERY SPECIFIC RATIO
21) so we handicap that by looking at 8 or 16 different ratios
22) and see how many are bearish vs how many that are bulllish
23) and then I also try to picture WHAT WOULD IT TAKE TO LEAN THE ODDS 1 WAY OR THE OTHER?

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24) after doing all of that, I figured that bears needed to swing prices 40-50 pts SEVERAL TIMES
25) for example, 50 down, 45 up, 50 down, 45 up, 50 down, 50 up 150 down

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26) and then I compare the the wave picture vs WHEN PRICES HAVE DONE THAT IN THE PAST...
27) in order to handicap bear vs bull

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28) this is why I am only in 2/9 of funds and not 1/3 like previously
29) I am paranoid and want to see the underdog bear outcome become massive dogs or
30) statistically eliminated, meaning turning 1/16 to 1/64

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8.00 AM ET FRI 7/28 UPDATE - WHAT TO LOOK FOR NOW

1) for chart above:
2) new hi light is what combined curves under 144 days imply

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3) if price follows blue hilight to first high on Monday...
4) that would be perfect R/R for Tuesday entry

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5) I will make new post for this
6) keep in mind that it maybe STRONGER the closer we get to next Wednesday

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7) like this:
8)

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9) so in more than half of extrapolations.....
10) we tag 2040-2050 Wednesday night

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FRIDAY 12:27 PM ET 1962.xx
1) next move to 1957-8 determines if we close at 1970 end of today
2) so it should move to 1957.xx first, then reach for 1968-1972

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3) 10 min later
4) looks like price want to move there now w/o tag of 1957
5) looks like this now

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6) 70 min later
7) looks like this now

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8) it doesn't matter what it does from here to Tuesday
9) we will still get this as the likely move:

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10) the most bearish scenario is 2080 3 times in that window and back down

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11) none of this is worth mapping accurately until Tuesday

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12) if we don't move for 1970 in 3 hours
13) odds of 2160-2220 high start to dip significantly and get capped at 2125 to 2145

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10:11 AM ET Sat 7/29 -- Prep work for next post from my end:
1) 18432 days:

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2) 9216 days:

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3) 4608 days:

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4) 2304 days:

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a) for chart above:
b) so that much is obvious
c) that's what the setup for very long term prices say right now

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5) 2304 days:

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a) for chart above:
b) so the bold (but skinny) lines are the actual period of the wave (18432, 9216, 4608, 2304, and so on)
c) but the light (but fat) lines are the "turn shadow of that wave)

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6) 1152 days:

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a) for chart above:
b) again, so you can see that specific wave, I shut off the big ones

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7) TYPOS!!!
a) red wave in notes 5) chart above IS NOT 2304, BUT 1152!!
b) blue wave in notes 6) chart above IS NOT 1152, BUT 576!!

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8) so that leads to 288 days:

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9) here's with everything on again:

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10) here is 144 days:

a) for chart above:
b) now we are on 12 hour bar
c) but I've kept the colors the same since beginning of this series of "wave breakdown"

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11) end of posts for saturday, here is 72 days:

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a) for chart above:
b) that's our base case for this rally up
c) there's two rallies
d) one from now to 8/15
e) a second one from 9/15-10/15 window (somewhere in that 30 days)
f) I have some confidence that this first leg to 8/15 ends around 2145+/-20
g) this is because of the position of this blue wave, the 72-day wave
h) so please read these last 11 notes that charted out all the waves
i) from 18432 to 72
j) this work took me more than 7 and a half years now
k) I am at the end of it
l) one way or another

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SUNDAY 7/30 1:43 AM ET
1) I cannot disprove 2200 by 8/15
2) I am not saying it is likely
3) I am saying it's really reasonable
4) all this is still dependent on price action between now and Tuesday night
5) which sets up the "continuously vertical move up"
6) there's ONLY 14 MORE BEAR HOURS at most
7) meaning from Sunday open to NY open on Monday
8) and they don't even have to be bearish
9) it's the last window for bears to do anything
10) and it is at best coin flipping for a retag of 1942
11) after that, it's vertical stair case to ADP on Wed morning
12) which then is explosive continuousy vertical move up for at least 48 if not 72 hours

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SUN 7/30 12:01 PM EARLY DRAFT FOR 7/31-8/15

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a) for chart above:
b) it's what it really says RIGHT NOW
c) while it has to prove itself...
d) IT HAS THE SET UP
e) EVEN IF PRICE STAYS AT 1945-1955 FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS

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f) end of Sunday notes
g) will post chart late Monday ..
h) or early Tuesday

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6:21 PM ET SUNDAY
1. the reason I can't map the next 36-48 hours is bc IT LOOKS UGLY
2. so it's a waste of time forecasting
3. I'm just going to wait to Tues night

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4. BTW, ugly does not mean bearish
5. it just means short term waves, 6 days or less, waves look very irregular
6. there's multiple combinations that influence the route up to 2200
7. and yes, I can't move off 2200 for 8/15 bc that's what it says now
8. and we will know easily by 8/8
9. right now it looks like 2120-ish will get hit on 8/4 to 8/8 depending on next 36-48 hours of price action

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MONDAY 7/31 1:10 AM ET -- END OF POST, HERE IS NEXT ONE: