黃金現貨 / 美元已更新 PREPWORK FOR 9/30
HEADER - How much more swinging until we get something meaningful?
SUMMARY - At least until 9/30.
DETAILS - This what the trends say is minimum amount of sideways before something gives. Needs to hit first 7 boxes to get excited. So check back around 9/28.
SUMMARY - At least until 9/30.
DETAILS - This what the trends say is minimum amount of sideways before something gives. Needs to hit first 7 boxes to get excited. So check back around 9/28.
註釋
NOTES 1 - 9/14 11:04 AM ETa) if you zoom in and replay price action so far...
b) you will see that price has so far under perform the hilghted path
c) so that is implying a retest of the floor (which should hold) in about 20 hours...
d) and that it will be 12-24 hours late for START OF the move to the third box
e) but should still get there on time
f) meanwhile box 5 is FOMC
g) current trends say no change to forecast to the START OF BOX 5
h) with at least 2 competing extrapolations for boxt 5 and box 6
i) but at this time, this route is still the favorite
j) I want to post DRAFT 2 with binry out come next Tuesday
k) that's it
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l) 90 min later...m) so 6-min bars say that 1916 gets hit before midnight ET
n) it still should tag 1904 before 9.30 AM ET (NY open)
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NOTES 2 - 9/14, 9:45 PM ET a) just tagged 1915, so heading for 1916 as forecasted
b) now we have a new question, will we get a retrace to 1904?
c) based on the situation now, we should NOT
d) current price action says 1910-1916 zig zag all the way until 8, 9 AM ET tomorrow
e) followed by spike to 1930 before U.S. closes Friday afternoon
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f) so the hilighted path continues to holdg) for now
h) have a good night
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i) I will be busy tomorrow so I can't add notes for price action until Friday night or Saturday morningj) so let's get this fractal out of the way
k) consider this:
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l) for chart above:m) so between now and 8, 9AM or so, we go SIDEWAYS between 1910-1916, so 1908-1918 max vol
n) what I think I know now is we HIT 1930 DURING FRIDAY, PM more likely than AM
o) HOWEVER....
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p) here is the comparison chart:註釋
q) I won't go into technical math bc it takes too long to explainr) to sum it up
s) WE SHOULD NOT HIT 1930 BY 10-11 AM ET FRIDAY
t) IF WE DO
u) then watch out for runaway spike to 1947
v) BUT WE WILL STILL CLOSE FRIDAY UNDER 1930 no matter what happens
w) this 1947 scenario is not a favorite by any stretch
x) BUT IT WASN'T A FAVORITE WHEN IT HAPPEND IN 2008 EITHER
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z) here's the vol limit for this type of move, again this is very rare:註釋
a1) for chart above:b1) I note that bc the techs on the left side IS STRONGER THAN THE RIGHT SIDE
c1) that still does not make it a favorite, but you can't say it won't happen until 9-10 AM tomorrow
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d1) after I looked at everything again, it's gotta be at least 20% for 1947 scenarioe1) so what I think I see is 90% 1925, 80% 1930, 20-25% 1947 all before U.S closes Friday
f1) how will we know?
g1) the zone that dictates this is 8 AM ET TO 11 AM ET
h1) standard forecast says 1922 by 11 AM ET
i1) outlier runaway scenario has 1927 by 9:30 AM ET, 1938 BY 11 AM ET, max vol after 1PM ET
j1) that's a wrap for tonight
k1) good luck tomorrow morning (if you're not bullish, I would sit this one out)
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m) 11:52 minutes before midnight...n) anything early morning around 1908-1910 is EXCELLENT BUY from things sit right now
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NOTES 3, 9/15 2:23 AM ET a) over 1919 now
b) so that puts 1947 on the table tomorrow
c) what do odds look like?
d) its obvious that 1939 is more likely than 1947
e) so let's see in the morning, a lot of time left for Friday
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NOTES 4 - 2:35 AM ETa) this post was title PREPWORK FOR 9/30
b) it should really be PREPWORK FOR 9/27-9/29
c) that would be the entry if this plays out
d) if tomorrow tags 1947, odds of this trade happening really worth the time
e) even with 2-way vol coming afterwards
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f) 3:12 AM ET, I'm going to bedg) retrace from 1919.50 probably tag 1910-1912 in the morning before NY opens
h) watch for the entry if you trade short term
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NOTES 4, 9/15 8:24 AM ET 1917.XX from 1920.xx minutes agoa) retracing again, and again looks like 1912 is target w/ outlier at 1907
b) if it retraces there, that would be a good entry for next 50 hours
c) that would be to 11 AM ET /thursday
d) odds of skipping retrace do exist but we will see
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e) 8:35 AM ET 1917.xx after touching 1915.xxf) the setup for anything above 1930 has broken
g) turns out it only lasted to about 8 AM
h) I didn't have time gto check it carefully
i) so what now?
j) that puts 1906 retrace on the table now
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k) so 1906 would be strong entry for next 50 hoursl) do we still do 1930 today?
m) I don't have enough time to answer that with confidence
n) in the mean time though, chart at top is still base case
o) so that implies one attempt to break above 1920 today
p) so today's top should once again be after 1 PM ET, I would ball park 1920-1927
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q) the one part that seems off is, if we do tag 1906 first, the 2-way vol would shrink in this caser) so that would 1928-1930 close to midnight Sunday to Monday
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s) to sum it up at 8:52 AM ETt) the most likely path counting only 12 days of regressions say that:
u) 1911 then 1925 today makes sense
v) 1925-1930 is a coin flip right now
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w) will add notes next on Sunday nightx) have a good week
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NOTES 5 - 4:10 PM ET 9/15 AFTER MARKET WRAP UPa) replay chart at top, we are step to box 3
b) read NOTES 1 again, where I said we should hold through START OF box 5 before 2 competing extrapolations
c) there are four different extrapolations now, but we will stick to the main 2
d) with roughly 70% of extrapolations look like this:
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e) for chart above:
f) so the orange route is updated favorite
g) blue route is second favorite but very close, so...
h) orange would be 4 in 10, blue 3 in 10, the rest combined 3 in 10
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i) so then:註釋
j) continuing with chart above:k) so third route is also bullish is red route
l) technically just a variation of another bull route
m) and the last one is bearish outcome around 15-20%
n) as it stands, chart at top will remain base case UNLESS THAT BLUE ELLIPSE HIT
o) if it does, this will be PM TUESDAY TO AM WED
p) WED IS ALSO FOMC and that is it
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q) nothing else worth commenting until late Tuedsdayr) if we need a new chart, we will cross that bridge if and when I have time
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s) that's a wrapt) hope you did good today staying long and have a good weekend
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NOTES 6 - UPDATED BLUE ROUTE, NOW FAVORITEa) number crunching over and over has this route as favorite vs field but still under 50%
b) while orange route would be closer to 20%
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c) I will make a new post, coming Monday night or Tuesday AMb) FWIW:
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c) I can't wait for replay both routes on 10/13d) entry date moved back to 9/30
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e) hours later...f) just realized 9/30 is a SATURDAY
g) so?
h) so entry would have to be 9/28 or 9/29
i) furthermore, reconciliation says orange route should still be favorite
j) looks like this:
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k) so for chart above:l) there's only 2 things unique about blue route that needs to be changed to base case in chart at top
m) 5th box needs to have floor down 8 points
n) 7th box needs to have ceiling up 8 points
o) that's it...
p) no new chart needed until 9/28-29
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q) BTW, reconciliation work looks like this註釋
NOTES 7 - SUNDAY NIGHT, 9.17 9:40 AM ETa) consider this chart
b) for chart above:
c) this is what 2 min bars say should happen
d) I don't have time to wrap everything up in a nice chart for DRAFT 2
e) so while the main pattern remains the same...
f) here is expectations for the next 44 hours
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g) continuing...h) so first the third box at top should have its bottom at the same place at the fourth box
i) and the rest of this draft is going to be too fast by 24 hours
j) I just don't have a lot of time to deal with this right now
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k) 11:35 PM ETl) spike to 1929.xx moved everything neatly back into original draft
m) so ceiling is 1931-32
n) third box at top does not change...
o) it's almost like it wants to stick to the path
p) so 7 AM ET MON low should be 1920, then the rest is the same
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9/18 11:48 AM ET HILIGHT PATH DIVERGENCEa) so if you replay chart at top, price has stuck hard to the path
b) but thoses paths are not intended to hold for 3 days or so
c) so what's going to happen next is price will lead that path
d) it's going to attempt 1935 around midnight ET tonight
e) followed by an attempt for 1906 midnight ET tomorrow
f) so for the rest of the week price will lead that curve
g) this chart, despite needing an update, will still be useful through at least Thursday
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h) IF it re-merges with the hlighted path Wed-Thurs zone...i) it MAY stick more/less to it through NEXT THURS
j) that's a wrap for today.
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NOTES 8 - 8:12 AM ET 9/19, BREAKING TREND AND BINARY OUTCOMES.1) price has held 1935 area too long, creating 2 major outcomes for today
2) one is spike up 10
3) one is spike down 10-30
4) don't have time to cast regressions
5) basically the chart at top is starting to fail and I can't give a replacement in time
6) that's a wrap for today from me
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7) there's a third outcome that includes both spikes in either order8) meaning up 10 & down 30 OR down 30 and up 1
9) all of these outcomes are derivatives of 36 hour max vol zone
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10:11 AM 9/19 SHRINKING 18 HOUR VOL ZONEa) so 18 hour is 1/2 of 36 hour
b) this zone has shrunk considerably which means a couple of things
c)) first, if you replay chart at top, price has just went back to box 3 area
d) so it intends to get to 1923 inside 4 hours so, let's say 2 PM ET
e) once it's there one of two things are going to happen
f) first the 30 point drop 1936-37 high?....
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g) continuing...h) so that would mean 1907 floor, 4/5 of the way would be 24, so let's say 1912-13
i) 1912-1913 should get hit BEFORE NY CLOSE
j) in this scenario...
k) it should keep the slope of the drop going in a straight line, whatever that line is
l) if that line breaks... then IT WILL STALL 1922-24 area... then continue the the drop slower
m) I can't tell if that's WED morning or WED afternoon after FOMC
n) in the second scenario, the floor shoud be a bithigher at roughly 1912-1917
o) that's the quick read from my end on the developments today
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p) 10:53 AM ET, 1934.52 over the third box againq) not giving w/o a fight...
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r) to sum it up... the setup is for moving to 1924, then continuing to 1906-1910 areas) it has decided to not do this quickly
t) the odds remain in this pattern until 5 PM ET, about an hour after NY closes
u) we should have decisive price action by then
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v) 11:11 AM ET I'm really stuck on time until mid day tomorroww) so if you re-read the intro at the top, it says come back 9/28 to see if "all 7 boxes get hit)
x) we are at the end of of the third box, ODDS ARE VERY STRONG WE HIT 6 ...
y) but that is WHETHER OR NOT WE FOLLOW HILIGHT PATH (bc it doesn't HAVE TO follow that to hit firss 6)
z) see you tomorrow
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9/19 1:17 AM ET, FWIW, here is what 2 min bars say:a) for chart above:
b) take this with a jar of salt, it's just 2-min bars
c) but my best guess... sigh
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d) I know it's 22-min chart not 2-min, but the zoomed out to show work on linese) it's 48 hour only, let's see what happens
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f) 1:40 PM ET, should start already and still 1932.04註釋
g) 1:46 PM 1931.06, this hard spike down should complete by 5:30 PM ET註釋
h) 2:02 PM ET 1930.39, it really has to do it now if it's going to drop hard註釋
i) 2:46 PM ET 1930.67, perfect down setup is beginning to reverse on 10 and 15 second barsj) what does that mean?, well nobody is selling
k) it has until 3:45 to make or break this setup now, so 60 minutes and the clock is ticking
l) it's reallly more like 50 minutes so until 3:35 PM ET to resolve this setup
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m) 3:13 PM ET, 1931.52, 25 min left, probably won't happen n) its a wrap for me, tired of watching
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NOTES 10 - I DON'T KNOW WHAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW.a) so this morning it had 3 routes
b) up 10
c) down 30
d) or both either order
e) but IT DIDN'T DO ANY OF THAT
f) I don't have enough time to crank out something worth using
g) so please don't use this post to make decisions
h) at least until I clear this up
i) I am just exhausted right now
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NOTES 11 - AFTER LOOKING AT CLOSER...a) so first, I had to sure it wasn't moving to 1950's and 1980's afer FOMC
b) regressions do do not say right now
c) right now at least 6/10 or 7/10 ratios say bear move for tomorrow
d) so whatever move happens ultimately, should not be far from chart at top
e) all that's really saying is we are on course to hit 6, 7, maybe all 8 boxes
f) BUT THE EXACT PATH keeps shifting
g) what I think will happen short term is
h) DOWN FIRST to FOMC
i) where to? the floor keeps rising so I'm thinking 1923
j) then FIRST REACTION TO TO FOMC should then be SPIKE UP TO 1937-1943
k) then SECOND REACTION IS RUG PULL
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l) no, it should be 1943-1947 before rug pullm) like this:
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n) no, I don't want to post something short term w/o going though the ratioso) and it just cost so much time
p) just forget it..
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q) 10:33 PM ET , so it appears like we already have a bottom at 1927.xx or 1928.xx (depending on your ticker)r) ) that means the setup is up from here to FOMC
s) and possible new relative high 1943-1947 post FOMC followed by rug pull
t) if no new high (topping) 1937 or less, then floor is 1916 area
u) if new high, then floor is 1923 area
v) the check down should complete by Thursday morning
w) whatever the case maybe, we just tagged 4th box (replay above, by a smidge)
x) in all extrapolations right now, we are on target to hit boxes 5, 6 and 7
y) it just won't be as pretty
z) the entry long is still due 9/29
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9/20 1:43 AM ET a) odds of new high now under 50% and falling quickly
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b) strange but true註釋
c) that's bc it's not true...d) it's only a $3 swing... so can't judge that with waves
e) need vol zones for that and I'm going to bed
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NOTES 11 - 9:49 AM ET 1942.xxa) see what I wrote at 10:33 PM ET
b) so we bottomed 1927-1928, check
c) possible new relative high post FOMC 1943-1947 (almost there)
d) we are 4 hours 10 minutes from FOMC
e) this scenario has not changed
f) however, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE ODDS ARE OF MOVING EVEN HIGHER
g) have literally zero time to look at charts so there
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1:11 PM ETa) 1947 wants 1953 as first FOMC reaction
b) rug pull target 1926 ish by within 16 hours
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1:51 PM ETa) if 1947 holds, then 16 hour retrace is 1916-1920
b) if move to 1952+ first, then 1920-1925
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3:42 PM ET JUST SAW 1937.XXa) excluding shenanigans in last 20 min before NY CLOSE...
b) bears want 1935 or less close
c) expect 1918 around midnight
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4:43 PM ET JUST SAW 1929.XXa) moving a bit faster than I thought
b) so let's say 8 PM ET for 1918
c) there are questions of numbers lower..
d) I am on my phone
e) hard AF to even guess number
f) I do remember that with THIS PATTERN SPECFICALLY.....
g) once the straight down crash stop... wherever that maybe
h) that should be the bottom.
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i. if there is a tail end dead cat bounce...j. it shouldn't matter a lot...
k. remember that this advice is blind... I can't see the 10 or 16 different angles...
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l. all I just said is wrong, stall 3 hours, second leg down註釋
7:55 PM ET a) 1929.xx now
b) can stall until 8:40 PM ET
c) but move down needs to complete by 10 OR 10:30 PM ET
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9:01 PM ET a) 1924.64 now
b) hours earlier, I said expect 1918 by midnight
c) what my scanners say now - and please understand I this is an incomplete assessment - that bottom should come w/in 90 minutes
d) I am still expecting 1918
e) my view on max vol is 1914
f) I will not have time to add any updates to this
g) when this bottoms... wherever it will be
h) THIS IS ALSO THE AREA TO GO LONG FOR NEXT WEEK
i) so either tonight or tomorrow morning
j) I can't give more than this right now
k) goodnight
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l) to be clear, the trade-able bottom is tonightm) that doesn't necessarily mean it's the best place to go long
n) speaking for range of next 12 hours
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9:09 PM ET 1924.89, MY SHORT STRATEGY DEMANDS THAT I EXIT HERE, SO I COVER SHORTS HEREa) I can't speak to what is coming in the next 90 minutes anymore
b) b/c I don't have an interest in it right now
c) I just want to be clear about that
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9:32 PM ET 1926.03a) 10 second bars say that a reversal is in progress
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b) with a target of 1931-1932c) just becareful
d) the 10:30 EXPIRATION has moved to 10:15
e) so if you are shorting tonight still, becareful
f) that's a wrap for Wednesday fro me.
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g) BTW, if you replay box at top, we are 5 for 5, first five boxes taggedh) we are on target for 6 & 7
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9/20 9:48 PM ET - FWIW, I have a small entry long via GCZ (gold futures DECEMBER contract) a) so GCZ is 1947 while XAUUSD is 1927 (so it is +20)
b) I have 10/04 1950 GC call for $12.50 (so $1250 per contract)
c) if my mapping is right, we rebound strongly inside 36 hours
d) I AM ONLY SAYING WHAT I AM DOING
e) this is not a recommendation that you do it
f) nor will I feel like I have to announce when exit the trade if and when I exit the trade
g) I am only stating for the record later, you are on your own should you choose to particpate
h) you are ALWAYS on your own
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i) lets' just make that 36 hours into 40 hours j) so through noon ET of Friday
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k) for the record I have alarm to wake up at 2:45 AM ET to sell it l) let's see if this plays...
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m) 10:38 PM ET, here are some thoughts on short term and near term price actionn) first - I think - that we have a bottom
o) we should know tomorrow or Friday
p) second, should that the be the case the next top is around 1965
q) this will be either this Friday or next Tuesday/Wednesday
r) in both situations, the next 2 runs to 1935 area will get shot down before it legit move alll the way up
s) that's it
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9/20 11:19 PM ET HERE IS PLAN A:註釋
a) for chart above:b) in notes wrote last hour write before this chart I said next top 1965 this Friday or next Tues/Wed
c) PLAN A is this Friday, why?
d) bc we stoppped at 1923.xx before 10 PM ET
e) and bc the resulting mapping from that bottom says so
f) we will know if this is the case by NY CLOSE OF THURSDAY OR TOMORROW
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g) here is PLAN B,which is a horizontally stretched out version of PLAN Ah) odds right now favor PLAN A by wide margine
i) but this stuff changes ALL THE TIME so don't take it so hard
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1:38 AM ET EXIT LONGS1) taking way long to go to 1930-32
2) suspicious AF
3) letting it clear up tomorrow
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8:14 AM ET 1918.xxa) why was it suspicios??
b) bc it opened the door for 1918.xx
c) now it intends to go to 1906-12
d) replay chart at top
e) all the way to BOTTOM OF BOX 6
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f) 1916.xx g) out on a limb and going to call 1906-1907
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9/21 10:20 AM ET 1921.XXa) so I''ve been long since 1916
b) I DO NOT KNOW that the bottom is in
c) this is simply gamble on that the intermediate pattern is correct for next week
d) if you replay chart at top, we are 6 for 6 heading for 7th box
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e) NO, 5 for 5 heading for 6th boxf) we never actually touched 6th box, even though we got to edge of it last night
g) the curves predicted on 9/12 as they do so today that this is the next turn
h) in the case that we do go to boxes 6-7-8, I really need the energy to do around the clock support starting 9/29
i) I am exhausted and really going to take a break from this for at least a few days to get my energy back
j) if I am correct (this post is titled PREPWORK FOR 9/30), 10/01-10/13 will be spectacular for us
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k) so basically just saying I'm going to disappear for a few daysl) have a good one
m) and remember, when legit risk is on the line, trail stops religiously
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n) to close out this week for me, consider:註釋
o) this break is a big deal for bulls, but it needs to holdp) from my end, with ALL THE TRENDS ON,
q) this area is the last high value area for bears if they intend to change the 9/29 setup for bulls
r) even though 9/27-9/29 should feature one more low point (based on the our forecasted pattern)
s) that low point would be extremely favorable for a long entry
t) so like this:
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u) but if bears have their way and "twist the curves" it turns into this:註釋
v) so even though prices are exactly the same at the "cross between" the two routes, they imply ENTIRELY DIFFERENT OUTCOMESw) as I type we fell from almost 1924 to 1918 and about to lose this critical area, bears haven't given up yet any means
x) so what would be the limit of price action that still preserve our 9/29 entry?
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y) the most annoying high 2-way vol (meaning giant swings) that still has a bull out come would something like this, vs the other two paths:註釋
z) for chart above:1) so you know the triangle pattern, it usually indicates strong price action one way or the other
2) so the rule is "fade the first reaction", bc if it breaks one way and the reverses to other, the second move is REALLY STRONG % -wise for that second direction
3) but sometimes it breaks BOTH WAYS, and reverses up the first direction
4) completely annoying both sides in the game
5) this usually happens bc of HIGH INTEREST OR VOLUMJE INVOLVED THAT CRITICAL AREA
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6) so I am not going to be surprised no matter what way it takes..7) but the chart at top is the highest probability generic pattern for this move for since 9/12 and remains so at this second in time
that's a wrap for me until next Tues/Wednesday
8) I am expecting a high
9) I am not sure whethe or not it '"stays in the triangle"
10 I will add if and when I figure it out and have some time
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9/21 8.57 PM ET EXIT LONGS1) looking suspicious AF again
2) it really does
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9/22 9:13 WEEKLY WRAP UP1) overnight price action impressive in move to 1928 ish and holding 1924
2) bulls want 1936 today with 1930+ close
3) the next 36 hours of trading will be filled with zig zag, first zig zag up to 1936 for 8 hours then sideways to Monday end of day
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4) if you replay chart at top we are 6 for 6 boxes5) as noted sometime earlier this week price is referring with the hilighted path
6) it should follow this curve WITH EXTRA UPSIDE VOL
7) next post Monday night
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8) typo *remerging not referring註釋
9) what was so impressive about a 4-5 point move?10) bc for trends under 48 hours, odds were soooo against it
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9/22 8:09 PM ET COMMENT1) wow... bears refused to die today
2) really bc bulls dropped the ball in a super critical spot
3) if you replay chart above its following the hilight again
4) but the regression picture this morning had bull's running to 1936
5) the important part is closing 1930 or more
6) that would literally shut the door on a bear comeback next week
7) that would seal the deal on 9/29 entry log
8) it's like NFL football, bulls made a turnover
9) now bulls have to make it to mid 1930s within 2 hours after Sunday open
10) or bears have a route to force price to miss box 7
11) I'm busy Monday so I will update next Tuesday
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9/23 5:30 PM ET REPLAY CHART AT TOP, THIS IS WHAT I THINK I KNOW NOW1) I have enough now to say we will 7 for 7 boxes
2) I also have enough to say we are going to hit 2080 ON OR BEFORE 10/13
3) there are 2 major issues
4) first, will we drop hard from BOX TO 7 TO BOX 8?
5) this matters a great deal bc it determines WHEN OUR ENTRY WILL BE
6) and second, what is the strategy once we have entry is completed?
7) I will focus on solving the entry for this coming week?
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8) forgot to say that BOX 8 right now not part of the picture9) and that this post, or chart at the top, will expire this coming Wednesday, while still in BOX 7
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10) 6:27 PM ET, so BOX 8 may still get hit at the top, but does not seem like anything under 1925 is a serious target for 9/28-9/29 (as of right now)註釋
9/24 PM 6:36 PM ET AFTER SUNDAY OPEN1) regressions say if bears want to change 10/13 2080/NEW ATH OUTCOME..
2) the best time to do that is next 12 hours
3) after that, bears have THURS 9/28 PM AND ALL OF FRI 9/29
4) if they want to stop 2080, they need to make something happen next 12 hours
5) if they want to stop NEW ALL TIME HIGH BY 10/13...
6) they would fill out BOX 8 IN CHART AT TOP
7) I don't have anything else interesting to say really until FRIDAY NIGHT
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8) to be more precise on next 12 hours zone...9) bulls still have control until 8:30 PM ET
10) then bears MAY HAVE control from 8:30 PM ET to 8:30 AM ET MONDAY
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9/25 10:09 AM ET 1922.XX1) bears beginning to change things meaninfully
2) they have extended their lifeline another 24 hours
3) so until this time tomorrow
4) they have placed 2080 for 10/13 in doubt (dropping to 2030-2060)
5) but this is w/o seeing bulls' response from Tues AM to Wed PM
6) so in that sense, 2070-2080 remains a fair target for 10/13
7) but new ATH now very unconvincing
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8) that is new ATH for 10/13 now very unconvincing註釋
10:26 AM ET 1915.XX1) bears WAY OVERPLAYING THEIR HAND
2) this is a strong entry on 4-20 day time frame
3) just saying
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4) 10:30 AM ET, still 1915.xx, if I iwas a day trader (and I'm not)5) I would go long here at 1915 or 1916
6) and expect 1924 in 12 hours
7) but watch for the turn though
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10:40 AM ET FIRST SIGN OF LEGIT BULLISHNESS?1) is bulls closing NY at 1922-24
2) if bears hold 1915-1916 (or lower) by NY close (4PM ET)....
3) this will place the whole forecast in doubt
4) why?
5) if you replay chart above
6) this is the first time price has underperformed the boxes meaningfully the entire way
7) which is fine, if bulls stick save it by closing the day at 1922-1924
8) if they don't and bears hold 1915-ish area or lower...
9) that's an invitation to break the triangle lower and lower
10) that break is not in the cards right now, but things can change
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11) 11:06 AM ET, still 1916.xx if you happen to take that trade for today,12) hard stop it 1913.5-1914.5 whichever more appropriate for you
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13) 12:21 PM ET 1916.XX DANGER TO LONGS14) LONGS should close here now
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15) 12:26 PM ET16) bulls getting cornered in short term price action
17) bulls have 60 minutes to make 1924 to hold trend
18) it does not seem they are going to
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19) 12:36 PM ET 20) BEARS WANT 1908
21) IF THEY GET IT... THIS POST FOR 9/30 IS FINISHED
22) I THINK THEY WILL GET BC IM SHORT
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23) be extremely careful if u are still long24) something about to give and it don't look bullish
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9/25 4:04 PM ET, POST WRAP UP1) so this is how it goes...
2) if you read the intro it said check back 9/28 to see if it hits 7 boxes
3) before Sunday open, I foresaw odd that bears would force price under BOX 7 and said that explicitly
4) after reviewing everything, I thought bulls would run it up this morning
5) after I said bears bought 24 more hours I STILL THOUGHT bulls would close the 4 hour bar 1922-1924
6) but failure to keep the rally going would I spell lower and Lowe
7) this is the nature of prices
8) it's just highly unpredictable
9) so that's it for this one, hope it was worth your time
10) I don't think we are in for a reversal up
11) this is bc the bear/bull regression marker in my software says it's too late for bulls
12) I don't have a chart ready
13) so what now for 10/13?
14) it should bears in control to 1840s..
15) but bears need more zig zag to spike down hard
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9/26 6:40 AM ET, CONTINUATION NOTES1) so we are 1912.xx from 1909-1910 overnight low
2) AT FIRST LOOK, price is aiming for 1890 within 2-6 TRADING DAYS
3) but needs a bit of sideways from now having stalled before reaching 1908
4) this sideways should lead to 25-30 pt spike down
5) I'm looking at 1920 to 1890
6) that's a very rough assessment for 2- 6 days out
7) if I have time, I will post something new
8) anybody want to hire an excellent around the clock gold forecaster?
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9/26 8:15 AM ET, BULL MIRACLE ROUTE 1) there is one bull route left
2) it has to hit perfect perfect
3) so until it does, it's theoretical
4) bulls must take price to BOX 7 ON WEDNESDAY AND HOLD IT FOR THURSDAY
5) touching BOX 8 FOR FRIDAY
6) so in that sense bulls are still live
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7) I am personally rooting for this route 8) bc of its implications for the LAST REMAINING GOLD BULL ROUTE LEFT FOR NEXT 24-27 MONTHS
9) that is if gold intends to be bullish ...
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10) in the next 27 months window11) it REALLY NEEDS TO MAKE THIS RUN TO AT LEAST 2040-2060 BY 10/13
12) I can break it down statistically but from my end that's what it says
13) we are essentially at one of the last gold bull scenarios
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14) the absolute last one is not very statistically unlikely註釋
15) 9:33 AM ET16) just saw 1904.xx
17) so last chance for bulls mean 1920 TODAY, 1932 WED
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18) This spike down from 1911 is awkward and early.19) It sets up a reversal up.
20) The nature of this reversal demands it start soon.
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21) 9:42 AM ET, bulls need 1914 by 10:45 AM ET.22) fail this and bull odds evaporate
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23) 10:06 AM ET24) 1906.XX after ICE/ICD ticker bid ask hit 1909.xx moments ago
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25) there are no more realistic windows for bulls reversal up after this26) 1914 or higher 11:00 is likely last deadline
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27) 11:54 AM ET 1902.xx, we are at max vol down on 12-day basis28) I wrote about this several days ago:
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a) for chart above:b) so triangle get broken up at "a" and again at "b"
c) most of the time "b" is the way it will go w first stop at 1870s at trend line below
d) I also said sometimes, it does a-b-c like this:
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e) for chart above:f) but trends are o obviously bearish that I can't even entertain this scenario right now
g) what's like likely is this:
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9/26 1:23 PM ET END OF POST. HERE IS NEXT ONE W/ THE FOLLOWING CAVEATS:1) I can't see how the first box happens
2) it's my gut saying that, and my gut is ALWAYS WRONG
3) I don't have the "total" evidence to make this chart yet, hence I noted in the summary that
4) I don't want to talk about this until BOX 4
5) with that said, here is DRAFT 2
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