MQP PRESENTS RUMORS OF A PIVOT DRAFT 1

2022年9月28日

HEADER - Bank of England first to capitulate, who next and when?

SUMMARY - Theoretical shape of pivot pricing vs DRAFT 7 of gold crash ending.

DETAILS - FIrst box is 10/07 NFP. Second box is 11/02 FOMC. Very early right now (1640) still favors bear route 8:1), but these rumors are backed by some evidence (see GBPUSD move right now).

2022年9月28日

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NOTES - I described this move in "Notes 2" of Gold Crash Draft 6:

2022年9月28日

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NOTES 2 - Buy the rumor? Maybe still too early. I would wait until 10/06 at least.

2022年9月28日

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NOTES 3 - AT 1664.5 was 50 off the low last nite (which exit was recommended in end of draft 6 several times). What now? Despite 50 move up, the needle has not move much in favor of pivot route. We are still at least 5:1 bear. As of right now, we have to see 1638 again before any bull route can be considered .

2022年9月29日

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NOTES 4 - 8.42 AM ET THURSDAY 9.29.

1. was back to 1640 overnight, now 1649
2. odds favor 1620 again before move above 1680
3. I don't a reason to move higher until at least ADP, next Wed
4. nothing worth talking about until then

2022年9月30日

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NOTES 5- Fri.8.23 AM ET, 9/30

1. odds of 1710 on 10/07 was realistic at 1670 this morning
2. that is saying 11/02 move is worth planning for
3. I don't think 10/07 high worth trading for bc this is soooo counter trend

2022年9月30日

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4. to sun it up, this is kind of interesting
5. but not interesting enough until 10/23

2022年10月3日

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NOTES 6 - 12:22 AM ET MONDAY 10/03... I keep coming back to this draft from early August:

2022年10月3日

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1) so as of this second, that August draft still makes the most sense
2) for "rumors" route to play, there has to be some GIANT, GIANT NEWS...
3) like Ukraine war widens unexpectedly, or China attacks Taiwan, or the Fed REALLY pivotting...
4) after NS1 and NS2 have been taken out, this now means that infrastructure in international waters are now fair game for parties involved....
5) but IT IS NOT IN RUSSIAN INTERESTS to make this a bigger deal than it already is...
6) so until something MAJOR, MAJOR changes...
7) August draft makes the most sense after considering all price action

2022年10月3日

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8... if i do quick reconciliation for that route, it would look like this:

2022年10月3日

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9) to sum it up, I don't see anything interesting until first week of November

2022年10月3日

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10) and that's still an IF

2022年10月3日

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here's all 4 together: