MQP-IER-002: GOLD 1830 BY 8/28/23, 1806 BY 09/07/23

已更新

HEADER - We are about 26-30 hours from entry short for Wed 8/23. Updated route looks like this.

SUMMARY - This is update for last post.

DETAILS - See previous post for background.

STRATEGY - Short 8/23 1902-1913 and cover 8/28 1835-ish.

NOTES - Will add as we go per usual.

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NOTES 1`- This chart expires in 8 days.
a) right before second arrow ends.
b) so the value here is just first arrow
c) raw numbers say 1825 can get hit so...
d) that's why we cover 1835 and don't overstay our welcome
e) will post next around entry short tomorrow

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NOTES 2 - First move down, Powell Jackson Hole & second move down.
a) so as it stands, first move down starts Wednesday night late
b) we should hit 1875, maybe lower Thursday morning THEN BOUNCE to...
c) 1885-1890 give or take
d) second move down starts around Friday 9 AM ET (which is around Powell speech) e) if we need insurance for Friday AM, we will cross that bridge if and when

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NOTES 3 - After reconciliation, the move looks just a bit different:

a) for chart above:
b) a bit slower, but hitting 1825 on 8/29
c) nothing that changes the plan any

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d) EXCEPT MOVES ENTRY UP AT WED NY OPEN
e) INSTEAD OF WED NY CLOSE/AFTER MARKET

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f) so here was prework on 8/15:

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g) here's updated completed:

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h) w/ solid foundation, we only need to examine these 3 waves on 15-min bars:

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h1) for chart above
h2) so from here on out, all updates for this post will simply look like that...
h3) with one more thing:

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h4) here's with the current hi-light and intermediate support channels

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i) finally here's expectations through end of week :

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i1) so my entry is about 19 hours from now
i2) there's a few ways to trade this move
j3) I don't have any recommendations in particular

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k. continuing at 2:02 PM ET
l. so the reason I moved up the entry to tomorrow morning is bc ...
m. short term regressions say 1885 might break BEFORE THURSDAY
n. it also says that if we move down after NY OPEN on WED, then...
o. Thursday is SIDEWAYS TO UP
p. and Friday closes 1862-ish
q. BUT IF WED PM holds at 1889 and DO NOT GO LOWER (which is a dog vs current extrapolation)...
r. then Thursday AM is over 1900 AGAIN
s. BUT WE STILL CLOSE WEEK 1875, or even 1865
u. so it's NOT THAT MUCH different

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v. but instead of finding support on Monday 8/28 at 1830-ish
w. we would find support on Tuesday 8/29 at 1825-ish
x. that's all the detail applicable this second

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y. if I dont't post my entry tomorrow morning
z. then THERE IS NO ENTRY

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STILL TUESDAY 8/22, 2:34 PM ET, ENTRY SHORT 1 OF 5
a) I have to take one here
b) this is not a recommendation to short
c) I am only stating what I am doing

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d) for the record, that was 1896.45

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e) 3:02 PM ENTRY SHORT 2 OF 5, AND 3 OF 5
f) that was at 1897.45

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g) I made the entries bc of my Fibonacci Infinite Regression (FIR maps)
h) it is saying I need to short by 9PM ET tonight
i) it's not necessarily more bearish, it's just different
j) like this:

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k) for chart above:
l) this one cannot be "reconciliated" w/ other maps yet
m) I'm just going with it
n) it is ALSO saying first that we se 1875 BEFORE THURSDAY
o) BUT IT DISAGREES on the back end how we get to 1805,
p) so we make it to 1805 on 8/30 this way
q) I can't disagree with it, so there it is

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8/22 9:15 PM ET 1900.XX ANNOYIN A-F!
1) not adding more to shorts right now
2) trying to decide what to do

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3) stopped out 1900.55, 9:21 PM ET

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4) 9:40 PM ET, it's too early, I'm going to bed
5) I'm waiting for 9:00 AM ET entry before NY OPENS

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6) what's really got me annoyed is that move above 1900 just now not supposed to happen tonight
7) it implies entry can get pushed to Thursday evening
8) my entry could've been 54 hours early
9) we'll see

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10) 9:56 PM ET RENTRY 1 OF 8, 9/1 1900 PUTS

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11) to be clear GCV23 October contract is $10 higher than spot
12) so 9/1 1900 XAUUSD puts would be 9/1 1910 GCV23 puts

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13) tactically not sure, but strategically pretty sure

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14) added ENTRY 2 OF 8 AT 1903, I'm bedsy

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8/23 1:44 AM ET, ENTRY 3 OF 8 AT 1903.83
1) it's not ready to die yet
2) I'm going back to bed

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8:48 AM 1907.XX COMPLETE ENTRY

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8:54 AM ET HARD STOP 1908.6
a) and again, that's hard stop no ifs
b) it's playing out how it should
c) its's just a bit stronger than it should be
d) it's 1904.xx, remember to trail stops depending on trisk tolerance

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9:04 AM ET TRAIL STOP TO 1907
a

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9:17 AM DROP AGAIN 1906.8 (FXOPEN ticker)
a) I am uneasy about this
b) it just doesn't want to die yet

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9:20 am ET move up to 1907.3
a) that's my limit for this move
b) it could hit hit any second now

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c) and it hit 1907.8 right now
d) gotta run
e) key here is wait for bulls to give up
f) on 4 min chart, they are not ready to give it up

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8"45 AM ET RE ENTRY SHORT 1813.XX

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1) 1913.xx typo not 1813.xx

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2) hard stop 1916 bc I'm in my car

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3) hit in seconds...

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9:54 AM ET REENTRY SHORT 1917.XX

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10:22 AM ET COVERED ALL PUTS 1915 FLAT MINUTES AGO
1) I had to get out of 0DTE puts
2) and it makes even since 1907 this morning
3) something is really wrong
4) don't have enough time right now to dissect all the wave adjustments
5) so it's best to stay out of this for now

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6) max vol this morning was 1815-1816...
7) we're above that (and holding for now)
8) and we weren't supposed to get above 1907
9) wider view of 11-min bars say we know more in 4-6 hours
10) so my tactics here are usually short and trail religiously
11) it doesn't make a lot but it adds up

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12) I'm short again from 1916.15
13 but here's 15 sec bars:

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14) and here's what that looks like now:

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15) it could hit 1912
16) but I sold already 1915.4

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17) rinse and repeat

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8.30 PM ET
1) have not done anything since morning

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2) it's not exhausted yet

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3) can't short it until it does
4) can't long either... makes zero sense here

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5. continuing at 9:02 PM ET...
6. replay the chart from last post:

MQP-IER-001: GOLD TO 1800 BY 09/15/23, PROBABLY A WEEK EARLIER

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7) from chart above:
8) so "overall" it's a short about right now...
9) but what has changed is...
10) it didn't take the low route or high route...
11) but it went low first then higher at pretty much the end
12) so the short and mircro trends that are responsible for this move today...
13) needs to "exhaust" into bear position
14) it's really hard to see this thing move up more
15) so I'm entrying short now 1918.xx 1 of 8 again
16) but with the expectation that this may drag sideways for 12 more hours before this thing gives up the ghost

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17) but you don't want to go in big here either
18) bc it's w/in reason to move slowly up to 1922
19) it's not going up quickly, so I have bids at 1919, 1920, 1921, 1922
20) but again, it doesn't have to hit here

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21. so in that chart above minutes ago...
22. if you replay it, it hit ALL FIRST 6 BOXES BLACK AND GRAY
23. the next 6 boxes in that chart... 5 of them have tops under 1890

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24. with that said, my stop is obviously 1922.7
25. not really that obvious, but just a tad above 1922

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26. I just added 2 of 8 at 1917.85 just now
27. I'm going to bed, good night

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28. cancelled all bids
29. lower stop to 1920.3
30. going to bed for good

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31. closed all trades 1920j.xx at 10:33 PM ET
32. invalidated

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33. if it breaks up here, it moves for 1925-1926
34. no more waiting for this one

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8/24 9:10 AM, THIS POST HAS ENDED. BACK TO PREVIOUS POST HERE: