MQP INFINTE REGRESSION INTERMEDIATE 9-4 GET SOME FOMO INSURANCE
SUMMARY - After talking to bond guys and more experienced traders concerning expectations for yields, I have to be responsible and post this now. My regression math has a virtual lock on 2070-2140 by 12/31-01/03. The problem now is that I completely expect 1915 to get hit next and the traders who I have complete respect for expect 1930s to 1950s. This is not trivial and requires you to buy upside insurance IF YOU ARE NOT YET LONG and waiting to get long.
DETAILS - I don't see a solid reason for 1830s amd 1840s entry if they are right. I see 1865 AT BEST FOR a pullback in that scenario. If you are following my charts and are not yet long for 2100, get long at least 1/3 of your position now. If you are waiting for the options trade, we have to consider the situation where we keep waiting for a bigger pullback and miss this trade. So the back up plan for the options trade is FEB 18 2022 at the money calls which will cost about $500 right now. I would buy it NOW (with futures options like GC or OG calls) because I completely expect 1915 prior to 11/22 (FWIW, right now I fully expect 1888 in 24 hours or less after posting this). I WILL POST WHEN YOU SHOULD EXIT THIS BACK UP PRIOR TO THANKSGIVING.
NOTES - Links for #008-5, #009-2 and -3 are below.
DETAILS - I don't see a solid reason for 1830s amd 1840s entry if they are right. I see 1865 AT BEST FOR a pullback in that scenario. If you are following my charts and are not yet long for 2100, get long at least 1/3 of your position now. If you are waiting for the options trade, we have to consider the situation where we keep waiting for a bigger pullback and miss this trade. So the back up plan for the options trade is FEB 18 2022 at the money calls which will cost about $500 right now. I would buy it NOW (with futures options like GC or OG calls) because I completely expect 1915 prior to 11/22 (FWIW, right now I fully expect 1888 in 24 hours or less after posting this). I WILL POST WHEN YOU SHOULD EXIT THIS BACK UP PRIOR TO THANKSGIVING.
NOTES - Links for #008-5, #009-2 and -3 are below.
評論:
NOTES 2 - My posts are virtually 99% concerning the gold market. This is not a trivial "FOMO" moment. Get some upside insurance now.
評論:
NOTES 3 - In July 2020 I was waiting at an exact moment like this too and missed the majority of the move despite forecasting it 45 days preceding the move. The lesson here is buy upside insurance.
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NOTES 4 - PLEASE LIKE FOR SUPPORT! This series brought to you by 6 years of quant modeling research.
評論:
NOTES 5 - I posted some time in the last week of 23xx 3/31 forecast. Which I am now unsure about. However, the same people I talked to above expect 23xx by 6/30. Meanwhile my latest number crunch expect sideways starting January to July and then 2750 in November 2022.
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