BTCUSD Has Increased Odds of Stage 3 Expansion Down in 16D TF
Hi Everyone! Bitcoin is at risk of Stage 3 Expansion Down invent in this 16-Day Time Fame (TF). I'm including screenshot of cover chart below. Yes, it's possible to fall within proximity of the Aqua Lower B-Band at $11,911 at this writing. Am I saying, "We will fall down to Aqua Lower B-Band?" No... Am I saying, "We will fall down with another Sign of Weakness well below $15,479?" No... I'm simply pointing out we should not conclude the Green Line will begin going up from here while we still have 11-Days remaining in this 16-Day candle.
I'm simply pointing out we are at serious risk of seeing Stage 3 Expansion Down when the Red and Blue Lines are both below White/Aqua Level 20 with the Green Line and White Energy falling down. True, the White Energy is not falling at present. Neither is the Green Line. Does this mean they both cannot fall before this 16-Day candle closes or some time during the next 16-Day candle? No... They most certainly can fall along with the price action.
Look at the Purple Vertical Time Lines. In all instances you see the Red Line below White/Aqua Level 20 and the Blue Line below Aqua Level 10. What do the Red and Blue Lines look like Present Day? The Red Line is below White/Aqua Level 20 and the Blue Line is below Aqua Level 10. The other two times in history (To the left of present day) the Green Line "closed" with the Green Line and White Energy falling. Our 16-Day candle has NOT "closed" yet.
So, we are NOT out of the woods yet. Be careful assuming we are in Accumulation. Could we be in Accumulation in the sense this period we have ranged sideways is acting as a POTENTIAL Preliminary Support Range before POTENTIALLY falling down with a Selling Climax event in Phase A of Accumulation? Sure... All I'm trying to convey is the indicators in this un-orthodox 16-Day time frame show increased odds of Stage 3 Expansion Down and we are NOT out of the woods yet.
I'm simply pointing out we are at serious risk of seeing Stage 3 Expansion Down when the Red and Blue Lines are both below White/Aqua Level 20 with the Green Line and White Energy falling down. True, the White Energy is not falling at present. Neither is the Green Line. Does this mean they both cannot fall before this 16-Day candle closes or some time during the next 16-Day candle? No... They most certainly can fall along with the price action.
Look at the Purple Vertical Time Lines. In all instances you see the Red Line below White/Aqua Level 20 and the Blue Line below Aqua Level 10. What do the Red and Blue Lines look like Present Day? The Red Line is below White/Aqua Level 20 and the Blue Line is below Aqua Level 10. The other two times in history (To the left of present day) the Green Line "closed" with the Green Line and White Energy falling. Our 16-Day candle has NOT "closed" yet.
So, we are NOT out of the woods yet. Be careful assuming we are in Accumulation. Could we be in Accumulation in the sense this period we have ranged sideways is acting as a POTENTIAL Preliminary Support Range before POTENTIALLY falling down with a Selling Climax event in Phase A of Accumulation? Sure... All I'm trying to convey is the indicators in this un-orthodox 16-Day time frame show increased odds of Stage 3 Expansion Down and we are NOT out of the woods yet.
評論:
UPDATE:
I also wanted to show where $11,911 is located on this Descending Channel using the 3-Day time frame:
I also wanted to show where $11,911 is located on this Descending Channel using the 3-Day time frame:
評論:
UPDATE:
Bottom Line: In order for us to have increased odds of us potentially being in Accumulation, we need to see four (4) events in Phase A followed by a transition from Phase A into Phase B of Accumulation.
FOUR EVENTS:
1. Preliminary Support Range - Where the price is ranging sideways for a while to establish what is usually a future Resistance Range where we could still have quite a bit of Supply not yet fully exhausted.
2. We should see a significant drop down and "close" substantially below the lower boundary of our Preliminary Support Range. This event is referred to as a "Selling Climax" event in Accumulation.
3. A Selling Climax event should be followed by an Automatic Rally back up to or at least near the lower boundary of our Preliminary Support Range. This is when we will usually find Supply has not yet fully exhausted
4. We should see another push back down once again; when excess Supply is released into the market. At which point, we fall down once again with another event referred to as our Second Test of Support event in Phase A; where we need to actually find (establish) Support.
5. After finding support, we want to see another Rally; referred to as a Simple Rally to provide potential confirmation we have found support and made a transition out of Phase A into Phase B of accumulation.
Bottom Line: In order for us to have increased odds of us potentially being in Accumulation, we need to see four (4) events in Phase A followed by a transition from Phase A into Phase B of Accumulation.
FOUR EVENTS:
1. Preliminary Support Range - Where the price is ranging sideways for a while to establish what is usually a future Resistance Range where we could still have quite a bit of Supply not yet fully exhausted.
2. We should see a significant drop down and "close" substantially below the lower boundary of our Preliminary Support Range. This event is referred to as a "Selling Climax" event in Accumulation.
3. A Selling Climax event should be followed by an Automatic Rally back up to or at least near the lower boundary of our Preliminary Support Range. This is when we will usually find Supply has not yet fully exhausted
4. We should see another push back down once again; when excess Supply is released into the market. At which point, we fall down once again with another event referred to as our Second Test of Support event in Phase A; where we need to actually find (establish) Support.
5. After finding support, we want to see another Rally; referred to as a Simple Rally to provide potential confirmation we have found support and made a transition out of Phase A into Phase B of accumulation.
評論:
UPDATE:
Apologies... I did not have the Gamma input on one of the indicators at the bottom of this 6-Day chart set properly. It is now.
Apologies... I did not have the Gamma input on one of the indicators at the bottom of this 6-Day chart set properly. It is now.
評論:
UPDATE:
I also marked where $11,911 is located on this Detailed History of Bitcoin from 2018 to Present Day using Wyckoff Method 2.0.
I also marked where $11,911 is located on this Detailed History of Bitcoin from 2018 to Present Day using Wyckoff Method 2.0.
評論:
UPDATE:
We are having a hard time getting up to a "presumed" Preliminary Support Range of $18,150 to $18,550 in order to see a potential transition out of Phase A into Phase B of Accumulation with a Simple Rally event in this 12-hour time frame.
If we were to come up to $18,000 or a little higher, we "might" consider we are in accumulation. But I would want to see us actually find support after the potential Simple Rally before I'm at least half way convinced. First, we need to make it up to proximity of $18,000 at a minimum. Otherwise, these weak moves to the upside may only be Last Point of Supply events in Distribution before falling down with another Sign of Weakness.
We are having a hard time getting up to a "presumed" Preliminary Support Range of $18,150 to $18,550 in order to see a potential transition out of Phase A into Phase B of Accumulation with a Simple Rally event in this 12-hour time frame.
If we were to come up to $18,000 or a little higher, we "might" consider we are in accumulation. But I would want to see us actually find support after the potential Simple Rally before I'm at least half way convinced. First, we need to make it up to proximity of $18,000 at a minimum. Otherwise, these weak moves to the upside may only be Last Point of Supply events in Distribution before falling down with another Sign of Weakness.
評論:
UPDATE:
Looks like the beginning of Stage 1 Expansion Down in the 2-hour, 3-hour, 4-hour and 6-hour time frames when the Red and Blue Lines fall below Yellow Level 50. The Green Line and White Energy area also falling below level 50. We have a new 8-hour in approximately 5 minutes. At which time we have a chance for the Blue Line to fall below Yellow Level 50 along with the Red Line, White Energy and Green Line to begin Stage 1 Expansion Down in the 8-Hour time frame (Bottom right corner).
Looks like the beginning of Stage 1 Expansion Down in the 2-hour, 3-hour, 4-hour and 6-hour time frames when the Red and Blue Lines fall below Yellow Level 50. The Green Line and White Energy area also falling below level 50. We have a new 8-hour in approximately 5 minutes. At which time we have a chance for the Blue Line to fall below Yellow Level 50 along with the Red Line, White Energy and Green Line to begin Stage 1 Expansion Down in the 8-Hour time frame (Bottom right corner).
評論:
UPDATE:
Look at the Red Line about to fall Down From White Level 70 in the 24-hour (Bottom Left of Center). This means we can fall Down From the White Upper B-Band to at least within proximity of the B-Band Basis. However, when both the Blue and Red Lines fall below White Level 70, this increases odds to fall down toward the White Lower B-Band. This would be referred to as Contraction Down; when looking at the B-Bands and the price action falling down with contraction of the B-Bands. Same thing is occurring in the 12-hour time frame (Bottom Left Corner).
Look at the Red Line about to fall Down From White Level 70 in the 24-hour (Bottom Left of Center). This means we can fall Down From the White Upper B-Band to at least within proximity of the B-Band Basis. However, when both the Blue and Red Lines fall below White Level 70, this increases odds to fall down toward the White Lower B-Band. This would be referred to as Contraction Down; when looking at the B-Bands and the price action falling down with contraction of the B-Bands. Same thing is occurring in the 12-hour time frame (Bottom Left Corner).
評論:
UPDATE:
As I've said before, "You can have multiple Sign of Weakness events in Phase E." BTCUSD 2014 Distribution Cycle is an example of this:
As I've said before, "You can have multiple Sign of Weakness events in Phase E." BTCUSD 2014 Distribution Cycle is an example of this:
評論:
UPDATE:
I'm posting the 16-Day time frame "again" before posting the 8-Day time frame below it.
Here is 16-Day:
Here is 8-Day:
The events to transpire over the NEXT 8-Day candle will be "vital" in determining if we have increased odds for another Sign of Weakness event in Distribution or if we are potentially in the early stages of Accumulation.
The NEXT 16-Day candle will also play a vital role in making this determination. Unfortunately, we have to wait another 8-Days before the NEXT 16-Day candle begins.
I'll provide another video update for Bitcoin either later this evening or early tomorrow.
I'm posting the 16-Day time frame "again" before posting the 8-Day time frame below it.
Here is 16-Day:
Here is 8-Day:
The events to transpire over the NEXT 8-Day candle will be "vital" in determining if we have increased odds for another Sign of Weakness event in Distribution or if we are potentially in the early stages of Accumulation.
The NEXT 16-Day candle will also play a vital role in making this determination. Unfortunately, we have to wait another 8-Days before the NEXT 16-Day candle begins.
I'll provide another video update for Bitcoin either later this evening or early tomorrow.
評論:
UPDATE:
6-Day time frame:
6-Day time frame:
This 2021/2022 Distribution chart has the $11,911 16-Day Aqua Lower B-Band price point placed on the chart to let you see where that is on the 2021/2022 Distribution chart. Again, am I saying, "We will fall down to $11,911?" No, I'm simply pointing out we have the potential to fall that price point.