If BTC breaks this at 9.4k the next immediate supports and reversal zones are:
- $8800, wave 1 high of the recent swing (it is not on my chart because I don't think it will be a possible reversal zone).
- Blue region, wave 2 territory and most importantly the 2017 uptrend line we have previously bounced off as well as 0.618 fib.
- at $6000.
- $4500, 0.786 fib.
- $2500, BTC's overall uptrend line since 2015.
I think we will likely get a dead cat bounce off of $8800 support. A key reversal zone I will be looking for is in my blue region, if it fails and the red along with it we can expect blood on the streets with a fall to $6000 and possibly $4500. I don't think we will test the green at least until next year. It is good to note that bounces from double bottoms and after WXYXZ patterns are usually extremely impulsive (fast), so even if one of these scenarios play out I will be very for April/May.
Conversely if BTC can break above $10750 I will put these scenarios on hold and update my analysis.
Please like and follow for updates and note the are in log scale.
*This is not financial advice*
- Golden pocket of entire rally since 2015
- Golden pocket of recent bullish swing
- 2017 rally trendline (has been supportive historically)
Also take a look at the 4H RSI it is extremely oversold and is actually about to reach support region indicated by the yellow line. A bounce from 8.2k looks good.
" Second waves tend to retrace so much of Wave 1 that most of the profits gained are eroded. They tend to end on low volume and low volatility. In a bear market, this indicates a drying up of selling pressure. However, during Wave 2 most investors are convinced that the bear market is here to stay."
We really need to bounce hard off this 8.2k region otherwise drops to 7.2k and possibly 6k become most likely outcomes.
- 1H 55 EMA
- Downtrend line turned support
-Daily 200 EMA
I don't see any reasons to go further down at this point, 6k was the entry point for institutional money, the general public will get in at 14k or beyond as usual.
I think we are heading back up slowly. I could be wrong though. This would be the time for BTC to kick in too as quite a few alts are on the verge of total collapse.
On a short time frame RSI is not too bad sitting at 42, previous rally to 11,7K started at RSI 50. RSI seems slightly weaker than previous wave for the same price level though. Seems like the previous two rallies to 11.6k found support above the MA200 so we might want to reach towards it again. I think we currently experienced correction ABC of wave two and we should start wave 3 that will bring us above 12k. This would then confirm our iH&S and expect wave 5 to reach 16-17k range :) I mostly do swing trading between two fav coins that are not in sync (GNT and LBC) and I have been long since BTC was 7K last year, I have doubled my satoshis during the downtrend and I keep buying the lows :)