Hi there, here are my thoughts on two possible scenarios which both spell opportunities.
A) Bitcoin has seen a massive sell off these past couple months but it has seem to reach what is likely to be the bottom of a very strong support zone at the 50 EMA in the monthly chart, which currently sits at around 26013. Historically the 50 EMA on the monthly chart has shown to be a good buying opportunity as we have seen in 2014, 2018, 2021. Wave one for this Elliot wave count starts from the Covid crash of 2021 which cleared the way for a new bull market phase and eventually ended around November 1st 2021. Recently BTC has done it's full 0.618 retracement confluent with the 50 EMA. Currently most indicators point to 25370 level as a possible bottom and the new accumulation phase has now started.
B) If a bigger capitulation scenario plays out, expect to target the 50 MA area on the monthly chart which currently sits around 21312 this would most likely be the final stop. Eventually bringing the Ultimate Oscillator further below 45 creating a massively undervalued buy zone for BTC. In the unlikely event another black swan capitulation brings us way below 20k, there is a high likelihood that this too would be short lived as we have seen in the past.
Expected risk to reward ratio is set to 7.17 and above. Thanks for reading and good luck out there.
A) Bitcoin has seen a massive sell off these past couple months but it has seem to reach what is likely to be the bottom of a very strong support zone at the 50 EMA in the monthly chart, which currently sits at around 26013. Historically the 50 EMA on the monthly chart has shown to be a good buying opportunity as we have seen in 2014, 2018, 2021. Wave one for this Elliot wave count starts from the Covid crash of 2021 which cleared the way for a new bull market phase and eventually ended around November 1st 2021. Recently BTC has done it's full 0.618 retracement confluent with the 50 EMA. Currently most indicators point to 25370 level as a possible bottom and the new accumulation phase has now started.
B) If a bigger capitulation scenario plays out, expect to target the 50 MA area on the monthly chart which currently sits around 21312 this would most likely be the final stop. Eventually bringing the Ultimate Oscillator further below 45 creating a massively undervalued buy zone for BTC. In the unlikely event another black swan capitulation brings us way below 20k, there is a high likelihood that this too would be short lived as we have seen in the past.
Expected risk to reward ratio is set to 7.17 and above. Thanks for reading and good luck out there.
交易結束：達到停損點:
The unexpected FTX event caused our trade to fail, and it caught us by surprise. This experience highlights the importance of risk management. By properly assessing and managing the risks of a trade, we can better prepare for potential setbacks. In this case, our risk management strategy, which included stop losses, was enough to prevent more significant losses. We can take this opportunity to reevaluate our entry point and reassess our strategy in order to improve our chances of success in the future.