Fundamental Analysis: While the message delivered by the Fed in it's last meeting was dovish and future path will be "patient" , the European economy isn't doing any better(Germany,France and Italy suffering from contraction), inflation not picking up towards Ecb's target, brexit uncertainty and the slowing global growth. Both sides are facing downside risks but the Eurozone is more likely to suffer from those risks therefore in my opinion US dollars will keep its strength against the Euro.
Technical Analysis: Markets are already pricing in the patient path by the Fed and the Euro is still declining posting the biggest weekly loss since September 2018 which proves that the sentiment is still leaning towards the Us dollar.
The pair closed its week just below the 200 week SMA and already breached the uptrend from November 2018 which confirms the bearish bias in the near term. Next immediate support is somewhere near 1.127 after that 1.1215 (YTD low) and finally 1.1120.
Technical Analysis: Markets are already pricing in the patient path by the Fed and the Euro is still declining posting the biggest weekly loss since September 2018 which proves that the sentiment is still leaning towards the Us dollar.
The pair closed its week just below the 200 week SMA and already breached the uptrend from November 2018 which confirms the bearish bias in the near term. Next immediate support is somewhere near 1.127 after that 1.1215 (YTD low) and finally 1.1120.
Ramzi Abou Abdallah, CFTe, CMT
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