South Africa is one Emerging Market economy poised for success given the recent dollar weakness. Today's retail sales data, +2.6% YoY vs 0.4% last month proves sequential acceleration in the macro data. Moreover, the noise around Eskom and SAA has been going on for years now and is merely noise. The only cause for concern would be a further downgrading of the Sovereign Bonds, which doesn't seem to be on the near term horizon. Naspers makes up 25% of the ETF, and with it's holding of Tencent in China, it should perform well given recent macro inflections out East. Recent Chinese PMI and output upticks prove the current reflationary theme being played out here in Q1 2020. Technically, the symmetrical triangle looks poised for a breakout or breakdown. Given the fundamental picture, I believe there is great risk/reward to the upside.
交易進行
評論:
Obviously this one didn't work out grace a COVID-19. Fundamentally I am long SA here.