A lot of messages coming in around Brexit and GBP pairs... with elections making the rounds lets start by reviewing our probability tree:
As you can see markets are underpricing the expectations of this to be completed by year-end with Boris sprinting for the finish line. The Government always had a 'cummings' plan B and Downing Street looks set to get this ratified by both sides before Christmas, causing maximum damage to the UK economy just in time for the global turndown in Q120.
For the technicals, studies are showing signs of becoming overbought while we enter into key resistance areas:
Whatever the case, people seem to have forgotten that even with an orderly Brexit it is still less free trade in the short-term and will not mark a recovery for the UK economy. On the UK monetary side, BOE will not move till Q320.
Good luck to those in UK markets, please feel free to jump into the comments with your ideas and charts to further the discussions!
As you can see markets are underpricing the expectations of this to be completed by year-end with Boris sprinting for the finish line. The Government always had a 'cummings' plan B and Downing Street looks set to get this ratified by both sides before Christmas, causing maximum damage to the UK economy just in time for the global turndown in Q120.
For the technicals, studies are showing signs of becoming overbought while we enter into key resistance areas:
Whatever the case, people seem to have forgotten that even with an orderly Brexit it is still less free trade in the short-term and will not mark a recovery for the UK economy. On the UK monetary side, BOE will not move till Q320.
Good luck to those in UK markets, please feel free to jump into the comments with your ideas and charts to further the discussions!
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