Last time I posted an SPX chart was the similarity of a fractal I was watching and it actually ended up working really nicely. We basically caught the exact top and it hit my targets.
Unfortunately it didnt bounce like before and it just kept going down due to overextended markets, coronavirus, bernie sanders etc etc etc whatever pick your narrative.
Heres the simple reason I think this area could be the bottom:
Unfilled gap. Its the last real unfilled gap thats close to this area I see. My 'macro' thesis was:
a.) that we should probably get some small relief bounce soon
b.) new lows, maybe what people consider to be a true 'capitulation'
c.) we rally again/pump on CoV dying down in the summer time + a Biden vs Trump ticket ever increasingly likely
d.) q4 we see more economic damage and potentially CoV coming back in the winter time, so more downside (maybe even a real bear market? who knows.)
Ontop of that, the last time we chopped around the 200 week MA we wicked around 7.5% down below it before continuing the upside. now this isnt exactly the same case, OBVIOUSLY. both on a technical level (not from ATH last time it was coming back from the dead) and the obvious economic/pandemic issues we may be facing but considering how many people are 100% convinced that this 200w MA should hold, I wouldnt be surprised to see it blow some of those people out with tight stops by shooting below it only to recover.
Finally 1 little addition: Goldman picked 2450 as their 3 month target. Personally I dont listen to these reports, certainly never trade off of them but it does at least somewhat validate me as far as a confluent idea goes.
I get bonus points if oil goes further down and bounces at the levels ive had marked since march 2019 (i posted those ideas before too see below for both)
So yeah, I'll be looking to load the boat in that area. Stay safe either way ya goons.
Unfortunately it didnt bounce like before and it just kept going down due to overextended markets, coronavirus, bernie sanders etc etc etc whatever pick your narrative.
Heres the simple reason I think this area could be the bottom:
Unfilled gap. Its the last real unfilled gap thats close to this area I see. My 'macro' thesis was:
a.) that we should probably get some small relief bounce soon
b.) new lows, maybe what people consider to be a true 'capitulation'
c.) we rally again/pump on CoV dying down in the summer time + a Biden vs Trump ticket ever increasingly likely
d.) q4 we see more economic damage and potentially CoV coming back in the winter time, so more downside (maybe even a real bear market? who knows.)
Ontop of that, the last time we chopped around the 200 week MA we wicked around 7.5% down below it before continuing the upside. now this isnt exactly the same case, OBVIOUSLY. both on a technical level (not from ATH last time it was coming back from the dead) and the obvious economic/pandemic issues we may be facing but considering how many people are 100% convinced that this 200w MA should hold, I wouldnt be surprised to see it blow some of those people out with tight stops by shooting below it only to recover.
Finally 1 little addition: Goldman picked 2450 as their 3 month target. Personally I dont listen to these reports, certainly never trade off of them but it does at least somewhat validate me as far as a confluent idea goes.
I get bonus points if oil goes further down and bounces at the levels ive had marked since march 2019 (i posted those ideas before too see below for both)
So yeah, I'll be looking to load the boat in that area. Stay safe either way ya goons.
評論:
Let me just reiterate, dont just blindly short to those levels. like I mentioned I think theres a good argument to be made for a relief bounce sooner than later, and if you get liquidated and your wife leaves you and your kids cant go to college then you cant buy stocks if that is the bottom coming soon.
