Hi, there is an update to the current situation of inverted SP500 graph
We are currently in a kind of wedge which can go in both directions. Imho March will be definitely "deciding month" in which direction the stock market will go. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider risks - to be in the market or not to be in the market and with what % of an amount of capital, eventually consider to protect yourself by some short positions or options.
Scenarios:
1) Currently I would expect to move from the current 3900 points to about 3800 points (cca 3% correction) is the minimum healthy correction we should make.
2) Deeper correction, which would mean wedge to be broken. It may occur in parallel due to some bad news (for example higher inflation - helicopter money, battle usa-china, some covid bullshit etc ..) This would mean a correction at least about 10% to 3600-3500 points there are a long-term trend, support and strong moving average MA200.
3) Everything will be shiny, wedge will be broken in bullish direction (btw: don't forget that people in the USA will get more money during March, which will quite likely go to the market again - according to JP Morgan research)
Final word: pay attention until market will decide. Btw: in any case on RSI is bearish momentum and divergence.
We are currently in a kind of wedge which can go in both directions. Imho March will be definitely "deciding month" in which direction the stock market will go. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider risks - to be in the market or not to be in the market and with what % of an amount of capital, eventually consider to protect yourself by some short positions or options.
Scenarios:
1) Currently I would expect to move from the current 3900 points to about 3800 points (cca 3% correction) is the minimum healthy correction we should make.
2) Deeper correction, which would mean wedge to be broken. It may occur in parallel due to some bad news (for example higher inflation - helicopter money, battle usa-china, some covid bullshit etc ..) This would mean a correction at least about 10% to 3600-3500 points there are a long-term trend, support and strong moving average MA200.
3) Everything will be shiny, wedge will be broken in bullish direction (btw: don't forget that people in the USA will get more money during March, which will quite likely go to the market again - according to JP Morgan research)
Final word: pay attention until market will decide. Btw: in any case on RSI is bearish momentum and divergence.
評論:
We've just hit minimum correction target
交易結束：目標達成
