SPY - TECHNICAL - Leviathan will Fall - Hedge Play
- Most Bearish scenario: already at the end of ending diagonal
- Bearish scenario 2: Ending diagonal then correction
- Bullish scenario: Starting Leading Diagonal
2/19 puts have almost 0 premium, low risk, high reward play
- Bearish scenario 2: Ending diagonal then correction
- Bullish scenario: Starting Leading Diagonal
2/19 puts have almost 0 premium, low risk, high reward play
評論:
評論:
I have a couple of speculations on the market correction:
1. It will happen next week for the long weekend gapdown.
2. It has already happened. I took a short position on Tesla anticipating it, and was rewarded as of now:
However, SPY doesn't reflect that, because it is being held up through junk stocks. The correction in SPY was actually in volatility, not the underlying price. The options market is the real market, and the stock market is just a derivative now.
Dark pool activity looked like institutes wanted to scare retail and buy heavily into the drop, so I think a lot of shares changed hands.
3. The correction will come at the next major resistance at 410-420 range, as per my idea:
Either way, I am hedged for market correction, but have long positions as well.
1. It will happen next week for the long weekend gapdown.
2. It has already happened. I took a short position on Tesla anticipating it, and was rewarded as of now:
However, SPY doesn't reflect that, because it is being held up through junk stocks. The correction in SPY was actually in volatility, not the underlying price. The options market is the real market, and the stock market is just a derivative now.
Dark pool activity looked like institutes wanted to scare retail and buy heavily into the drop, so I think a lot of shares changed hands.
3. The correction will come at the next major resistance at 410-420 range, as per my idea:
Either way, I am hedged for market correction, but have long positions as well.
評論:
Possible corrective pattern forecast:
