As all can see that 10 yr yield broke out of the long term trend line, and it has completed the double top. My hunch is it will come back to retest the trendline around 2%. That is the flight to safety. We can see that in 2008 what happened when 10 yr yield sharply dropped, equities dropped more than 30% in a short period of time.
All in all, short bond is a crowded trade, it may trigger a bond squeeze and equities bloodbath in the coming months. Be prepared and don't be blind sighted by the short term ramp by MM. Because they know it is coming so they need to make it look like we are going way higher, thats the only way they can dump overhead inventory.
For the reference, see the comparison that I did in 1937. Link is below.
All in all, short bond is a crowded trade, it may trigger a bond squeeze and equities bloodbath in the coming months. Be prepared and don't be blind sighted by the short term ramp by MM. Because they know it is coming so they need to make it look like we are going way higher, thats the only way they can dump overhead inventory.
For the reference, see the comparison that I did in 1937. Link is below.
評論:
Boom TLT ripped, Bond yield dropped hard
