A number of string events appear to be shifting the economic landscape around the world of late. Extreme euphoria one year ago ("Economies are booming, time to raise interest rates more"), turned into panic at the end of 2018 with slowdowns across the board. The prompt support provided by US officials (is keeping markets going up their job?), made everyone forget the issues, problems and fundamentals... Back to business as usual, just keep buying!
The treasuries market however is a boat much harder to steer and is subject to global flows of capital - this market started saying a different story... Yields tend consistently to indicate the path for economies... The smart money is always in search of yield for a given amount of risk. When the balance of the two shifts re-allocations occur at a global level, moving the respective markets accordingly. A slowing world growth / economy increases risks in regions and markets that traditionally support higher returns. At the moment fundamentals in economies around the world are deteriorating, prompting investors to switch their focus to risk-management, as opposed to returns.
A break-out of the 10 year yield channel at the beginning of the year, sent everyone to the gates ("interests going to 4%, 5%, 6% etc.), just to be proved wrong in the recent sell-off. The re-entry in the channel is further compounded by the 3M-10Y yield curve going negative - a hotly debated topic and one for which everyone has an opinion... But the common attitude on the street is "this time is different..."
The spike in yields over the last 1-2 weeks is most likely just a "breather" before moving again to the downside. In short, economies around the globe are slowing... The US is not a leading indicator of yields for the rest of the world, it just appears to have managed to put some ammunition in its arsenal for when things turn south (something other central banks do not have - e.g. EU, Japan etc.).
So... Buy Bonds and Buy Dollars
The treasuries market however is a boat much harder to steer and is subject to global flows of capital - this market started saying a different story... Yields tend consistently to indicate the path for economies... The smart money is always in search of yield for a given amount of risk. When the balance of the two shifts re-allocations occur at a global level, moving the respective markets accordingly. A slowing world growth / economy increases risks in regions and markets that traditionally support higher returns. At the moment fundamentals in economies around the world are deteriorating, prompting investors to switch their focus to risk-management, as opposed to returns.
A break-out of the 10 year yield channel at the beginning of the year, sent everyone to the gates ("interests going to 4%, 5%, 6% etc.), just to be proved wrong in the recent sell-off. The re-entry in the channel is further compounded by the 3M-10Y yield curve going negative - a hotly debated topic and one for which everyone has an opinion... But the common attitude on the street is "this time is different..."
The spike in yields over the last 1-2 weeks is most likely just a "breather" before moving again to the downside. In short, economies around the globe are slowing... The US is not a leading indicator of yields for the rest of the world, it just appears to have managed to put some ammunition in its arsenal for when things turn south (something other central banks do not have - e.g. EU, Japan etc.).
So... Buy Bonds and Buy Dollars