The US elections next week are an obvious inflection point, not just for the US but for stocks globally. The initial reaction would be easy to gauge: up for Trump, down for the Democrats. If the Democrats take control then they will reverse all of Trump's progress. The market reaction would be negative.
That is not to say that the market rally would be dead. In my opinion, it would merely postpone the inevitable - a parabolic rise in US stocks. My bias remains long, and only monthly close below 2018 lows would shift the market into a medium-term neutral gear.
Last week's preemptive bounce offers a good pivot from which to trade the election reaction. If the result is contested, with allegations of foul play, it would be reasonable to expect the market to coil before picking a determined direction. In any case, it is my current expectation that we are forming part of a larger coiling pattern, which will propel the market to new all-time highs. A measured move projects from the November 2016 low the 2018 high, to the 36k area.
IF we take out recent lows, I do not recommend shorting this market. DAX, CAC and others offer better short plays.
I am long only.
That is not to say that the market rally would be dead. In my opinion, it would merely postpone the inevitable - a parabolic rise in US stocks. My bias remains long, and only monthly close below 2018 lows would shift the market into a medium-term neutral gear.
Last week's preemptive bounce offers a good pivot from which to trade the election reaction. If the result is contested, with allegations of foul play, it would be reasonable to expect the market to coil before picking a determined direction. In any case, it is my current expectation that we are forming part of a larger coiling pattern, which will propel the market to new all-time highs. A measured move projects from the November 2016 low the 2018 high, to the 36k area.
IF we take out recent lows, I do not recommend shorting this market. DAX, CAC and others offer better short plays.
I am long only.