New Monero XMR prediction ~ $5560 USD in 2018

If as I predict XMR will reach the top 3 crypto currencies in 2018 it would have to have a market cap similar or greater to the Market Cap of XRP (ripple) at the moment of writing USD$86,629,637,881

If this is to come to pass the price of 1 XMR would rise to ~ $5559 USD (86,629,637,881USD divided by 15,582,824XMR)

This is an increase of 5129USD
Or, as a percentage :
an increase of 1192.79%

The bans and taxes on mining in China and restrictions on cryptocurrency use will only continue to push users and then investors towards well designed privacy coins.

Bitcoin             is Gold             , Litecoin is Silver             and Monero is Digital cash

The ramifications of a $6000 dollar Monero would be huge it would mean nearly anyone anywhere could mine profitably with whatever hardware they have on their desktop/laptop. Browser miners would finally become a lucrative way of serving up content without ads and the overall distribution of the Monero would be fairer and more stable than any other currency on the market because ASICS will not exponentially increase difficulty making widespread adoption of Bitcoin             and other currencies difficult.

Nah man, there's no way it's getting that high, are you serious? Just because people find privacy coins attractive doesn't mean so many people will want to trade them. The only reason I can think of for the price getting anywhere over $1000 this year is because of Weiss grade being high enough to attract Wall Street players. We'll see on Wednesday what their initial grade for Monero is, but the volatility is definitely not going to work in its favor.
TraderT33 neuromancer
@neuromancer, it's not about privacy, it's about fungibility really: https://monero.stackexchange.com/questions/1967/what-is-fungibility-and-why-does-it-matter
+2 回覆
neuromancer TraderT33
@TraderT33, thanks, I know what fungibility is lol

As with all cryptocurrencies, the fungibility is only able to be manifested if the currency is widely adopted. Monero is currently only valuable outside of wide-spread adoption due to 2 factors: mining investment and privacy ability. Since only crypto enthusiasts (niche group) tend to value mining, the privacy ability is the biggest selling factor.

Therefore, the fungibility of Monero is strictly resting on its adoption due to its privacy capability. If you get enough people on board with that (which I think we can, eventually, as in years..), then maybe the coin will be accepted as currency by enough legal vendors that it'll become fungible. But currently? Not so much.. I don't see large merchants accepting Monero as payment. I barely even see anyone accepting Monero as payment at all, to be honest (we should change that). I'm sure it's great on the darknet, but the darknet is essentially black market, which scares off the average Joe and there are waaayyyy more average Joes not willing to break laws to make a buck than criminals dealing on the black market. (And if you disagree with that, fine, we can disagree, but that is what I believe based on hard data easily obtainable by a little patient googling on crime statistics and employment statistics).

So, $5,000+ by the end of 2018? Seems very far-fetched to me....
TraderT33 neuromancer
@neuromancer, Sorry, I actually think you don't know what fungibility is... fungibility means that 1 xmr will always be 1 xmr, no matter what it's transaction-history is... Don't know what fungibility has to do with adoption... could you elaborate why 'wider adoption = more fungible'?
+2 回覆
neuromancer TraderT33
@TraderT33, because right now you can buy or sell Monero at different prices. Thus, 1 Monero does not always equal 1 Monero. Fungibility of a Monero means you cannot buy Monero at one exchange and arbitrage it at another for a profit. That is not the case right now as we speak as I look at https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/xmr/markets/USD and see a range of $335 - $395. That is not a fungible currency.

Widespread adoption closes that $60 gap....
TraderT33 neuromancer
@neuromancer, What? Differences in price has nothing to do with fungibility... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fungibility

"In economics, fungibility is the property of a good or a commodity whose individual units are essentially interchangeable.

For example, since one kilogram of pure gold is equivalent to any other kilogram of pure gold, whether in the form of coins, ingots, or in other states, gold is fungible. Other fungible commodities include sweet crude oil, company shares, bonds, other precious metals, and currencies. Fungibility refers only to the equivalence of each unit of a commodity with other units of the same commodity and not to the exchange of one commodity for another, which is barter."
This has nothing to do whatsoever with 'price'

Fungibility has to do with the physical properties (or in case of crypto's the digital property of transactionhistory (which xmr doesn't have, making it fungible))...

I think you should do some reading...

+1 回覆
neuromancer TraderT33
@TraderT33, I'm not sure how you're missing this but price has everything to do with fungibility. If you can sell your 1 Monero for $346 and I can sell mine for $353 then your Monero and my Monero are not equal. Do you get this?
neuromancer neuromancer
The reason why FIAT currency and precious metals are fungible is because you will be hard pressed to find a difference in price between, say, USD/EUR on one exchange vs that same pair on another. If you find that difference, you have an arbitrage opportunity, and High Frequency Traders (HFTs) usually snatch that the millisecond it exists, so USD stays fungible against EUR. Since HFTs are snatching arbs in most markets, you'd be hard pressed to make the argument that USD isn't fungible globally.

So now apply that to Monero and instantly you should see how Monero over here does not equal Monero over there. That is not a fungible currency, it doesn't always equal itself.

USD is widely adopted, Monero is not. You see?
TraderT33 neuromancer
@neuromancer, no, you're totally missing the point about fungibility... Again, read the definition and tell me where price is involved... It has litterally nothing to do with differences in pricing in some currency...

I can't discuss this further with you if you don't want to at least just point out where in the definition of fungibility you find 'something (litterally anything) that has to do with 'price' '
+1 回覆
TraderT33 neuromancer
@neuromancer, I'm not sure how you're missing that 1 ounce of gold = 1 ounce of gold, whether you pay 800$ for it when you dig it up or you pay 1200$ for it in the shop... just like one xmr is always one xmr, whatever it's transactionhistory is...
There's not difference in the properties of 1 xmr, whether you paid 346$ or you paid $353, they're both 1 XMR

Read the definition of fungibility, and tell me where 'price' is involved...

Do you get this?
+1 回覆
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