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已更新 VIX/VVIX Spike Risk
VIX/VVIX Spike Risk Analyzer
The VIX/VVIX Spike Risk Analyzer analyzes historical VIX behavior under similar market conditions to forecast future VIX spike risk.
By combining current VIX and VVIX levels as dual filters, it identifies historical precedents and calculates the probability and magnitude of VIX spikes over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days.
IMPORTANT: This indicator must be applied to the VIX chart (CBOE:VIX) to function correctly.
Methodology
1. Dual-Filter Pattern Matching
The indicator uses both VIX and VVIX as simultaneous filters to identify historically analogous market conditions:
By requiring BOTH metrics to match historical levels, the indicator creates more precise market condition filters than using VIX alone. This dual-filter approach significantly improves predictive accuracy because:
VIX alone might be at 15, but VVIX can tell us if that 15 is stable (low VVIX) or explosive (high VVIX)
High VVIX + Low VIX often precedes major spikes
Low VVIX + Low VIX suggests sustained calm
2. Tolerance Settings
VIX Matching (Default: ±10% Relative)
Uses relative percentage matching for consistency across different VIX regimes
Example: VIX at 15 matches 13.5-16.5 (±10%)
Can switch to absolute tolerance (±5 points) if preferred
VVIX Matching (Default: ±10 Points Absolute)
Uses absolute point matching as VVIX scales differently
Example: VVIX at 100 matches 90-110
Can switch to relative percentage if preferred
3. Historical Analysis Window
The indicator scans up to 500 bars backward (limited by VVIX data availability) to find all historical periods where both VIX and VVIX were at similar levels. Each match becomes a "sample" for statistical analysis.
4. Forward-Looking Spike Analysis
For each historical match, the indicator measures VIX behavior over the next 1, 5, and 10 days
Display Metrics Explained
Average Highest Spike
Shows the average of the maximum VIX spikes observed.
Highest Single Spike
Shows the single largest spike ever recorded
Probability No 10% Spike
Shows what percentage of historical cases stayed BELOW a 10% spike:
Probability No 20% Spike
Shows what percentage of historical cases stayed BELOW a 20% spike:
Note: You'll see many more shaded bars than the sample count because each match creates up to 5 consecutive shaded bars (bars 1-5 after the match all "look back" and see it).
Short Volatility Strategies:
Enter when there's a LOW probability of big vol spikes based on today's metrics
Long Volatility Strategies
Enter when there's a HIGH probability of big vol spikes based on today's metrics
The VIX/VVIX Spike Risk Analyzer analyzes historical VIX behavior under similar market conditions to forecast future VIX spike risk.
By combining current VIX and VVIX levels as dual filters, it identifies historical precedents and calculates the probability and magnitude of VIX spikes over the next 1, 5, and 10 trading days.
IMPORTANT: This indicator must be applied to the VIX chart (CBOE:VIX) to function correctly.
Methodology
1. Dual-Filter Pattern Matching
The indicator uses both VIX and VVIX as simultaneous filters to identify historically analogous market conditions:
By requiring BOTH metrics to match historical levels, the indicator creates more precise market condition filters than using VIX alone. This dual-filter approach significantly improves predictive accuracy because:
VIX alone might be at 15, but VVIX can tell us if that 15 is stable (low VVIX) or explosive (high VVIX)
High VVIX + Low VIX often precedes major spikes
Low VVIX + Low VIX suggests sustained calm
2. Tolerance Settings
VIX Matching (Default: ±10% Relative)
Uses relative percentage matching for consistency across different VIX regimes
Example: VIX at 15 matches 13.5-16.5 (±10%)
Can switch to absolute tolerance (±5 points) if preferred
VVIX Matching (Default: ±10 Points Absolute)
Uses absolute point matching as VVIX scales differently
Example: VVIX at 100 matches 90-110
Can switch to relative percentage if preferred
3. Historical Analysis Window
The indicator scans up to 500 bars backward (limited by VVIX data availability) to find all historical periods where both VIX and VVIX were at similar levels. Each match becomes a "sample" for statistical analysis.
4. Forward-Looking Spike Analysis
For each historical match, the indicator measures VIX behavior over the next 1, 5, and 10 days
Display Metrics Explained
Average Highest Spike
Shows the average of the maximum VIX spikes observed.
Highest Single Spike
Shows the single largest spike ever recorded
Probability No 10% Spike
Shows what percentage of historical cases stayed BELOW a 10% spike:
Probability No 20% Spike
Shows what percentage of historical cases stayed BELOW a 20% spike:
Note: You'll see many more shaded bars than the sample count because each match creates up to 5 consecutive shaded bars (bars 1-5 after the match all "look back" and see it).
Short Volatility Strategies:
Enter when there's a LOW probability of big vol spikes based on today's metrics
Long Volatility Strategies
Enter when there's a HIGH probability of big vol spikes based on today's metrics
發行說明
Updating Chart發行說明
Fixed a bug with the historical background colors.發行說明
Updated the table so it's easier to view and less buggy.發行說明
Added a row for biggest crash and now the table shows the tolerance levels as well.開源腳本
秉持TradingView一貫精神，這個腳本的創作者將其設為開源，以便交易者檢視並驗證其功能。向作者致敬！您可以免費使用此腳本，但請注意，重新發佈代碼需遵守我們的社群規範。
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。
開源腳本
秉持TradingView一貫精神，這個腳本的創作者將其設為開源，以便交易者檢視並驗證其功能。向作者致敬！您可以免費使用此腳本，但請注意，重新發佈代碼需遵守我們的社群規範。
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並非旨在提供，也不構成TradingView提供或認可的任何形式的財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議或推薦。請閱讀使用條款以了解更多資訊。