CMT's ProGo indicator v.2
This was inspired by William's ProGo, which is an oscillator with a fast line based on today's open minus close compared to a slow line derived from yesterday's open minus close. These are tied to the 14 day SMA in both cases. William's hypothesis is that smart money makes its decisions based on what's happening now and dumb money makes their decisions slower. My hypothesis is that smart money reacts faster and in a more straightforward manner based on current price action while dumb money takes even longer than WIlliam's factored due to overthinking things. To reflect this, I've tied the pro line to the 1 SMA and the amateur line to the 21 SMA then changed the formula for the amateur line to open divided by close. That's a really cute story and all, but let's throw out all of the smart money/dumb money stuff and strap our boots to reality.
How to use:
1.) What we're looking at in the end is an examination of the relationship between price action and the 21 SMA. Since we're exploring rate of change and momentum, divergences should be relevant, right? And divergences are relevant in this indicator. These divergences are pretty good and tend to work in harmony with the trend, though can signal reversal points.
2.) This is not a real time oscillator. It involves three levels of derivation. Sometimes it'll provide leading signals and sometimes it'll show lagging signals because we're comparing the present against the past through a filter.
3.) I've noticed that this oscillator can be used to generate angled trend lines in some cases before they become evident through price action. This is interesting. What you'll do is slap some trend lines onto the oscillator, copy those then paste them onto the price action chart, copy them a few times to create a channel and see what's what. Horizontal support and resistance on the oscillator seems to translate into future price action S/R as well. THAT's interesting.
4.) On lower time frames, this indicator will do a pretty good job of letting you know whether you're in a bearish or bullish trend.
5.) Because of how the oscillator is formulated, it only recognizes Bitcoin as either bullish or ranging on higher time frames and will only ever register bearish on lower time frames. I don't think this will ever change, but if it does register BTC as bearish on higher time frames, I'd be real worried about Bitcoin.
6.) You'll notice that over time, volatility in the oscillator increases. Neat, huh? Yeah, it'll increase as market cap does. Take care and have fun with that.
v2.0 Improvements:
Divergences have been added.
How to use:
1.) What we're looking at in the end is an examination of the relationship between price action and the 21 SMA. Since we're exploring rate of change and momentum, divergences should be relevant, right? And divergences are relevant in this indicator. These divergences are pretty good and tend to work in harmony with the trend, though can signal reversal points.
2.) This is not a real time oscillator. It involves three levels of derivation. Sometimes it'll provide leading signals and sometimes it'll show lagging signals because we're comparing the present against the past through a filter.
3.) I've noticed that this oscillator can be used to generate angled trend lines in some cases before they become evident through price action. This is interesting. What you'll do is slap some trend lines onto the oscillator, copy those then paste them onto the price action chart, copy them a few times to create a channel and see what's what. Horizontal support and resistance on the oscillator seems to translate into future price action S/R as well. THAT's interesting.
4.) On lower time frames, this indicator will do a pretty good job of letting you know whether you're in a bearish or bullish trend.
5.) Because of how the oscillator is formulated, it only recognizes Bitcoin as either bullish or ranging on higher time frames and will only ever register bearish on lower time frames. I don't think this will ever change, but if it does register BTC as bearish on higher time frames, I'd be real worried about Bitcoin.
6.) You'll notice that over time, volatility in the oscillator increases. Neat, huh? Yeah, it'll increase as market cap does. Take care and have fun with that.
v2.0 Improvements:
Divergences have been added.