EBB & Flow: a multi-EMA-based BB cloud

2021年5月20日

Intro

This is an idea evolved out of the market maker method and EMA convergence, divergence, and mean reversion.

The market maker method informs us that the 5, 13, 50 and 200 EMAs are important to regulating price. Those EMA lengths are multiples of the 50 and 200 on lower major timeframes -- the 1 minute, 5, 15, 1H, 4H, 1D. I include the 21 because it is also a multiple and in crypto very often respected.

When market makers are testing price, they set their range and spike in the direction they test for liquidity. This can get chaotic. For instance, in a shorter time frame consolidation inside a bigger timeframe uptrend, it can be too easy to forget where you are in the many trends playing out.

When the EMAs are dragged over each other during normal price movement, you get these crisscrossing tracks of price, and the individual breaks can be hard to trace.

The range is what matters, ultimately, and the range is dynamic. In that case, the Bollinger Band is a great tool for detecting outliers in this case.

The Answer

So the answer this indicator seeks to give, is to look for outliers. This gives you a scalping strategy built on Traders Reality thinking and best put together with the PVSRA indicator, which I may include in this indicator just for the sake of concision, but they can work alongside each other or separately.

The key thing is the different EMA clouds, which are bollinger bands. Tight bands mean imminent breaks, favouring the trend. Vector candles out of a zone, pins to the low/high, etc. are all very relevant alongside this indicator.

You can also use it on its own and scalp the breaks of a cloud.

How it works

Each cloud is a standard deviation from their respective EMA, all in the same colour. The deviation multiple is 1.618 by default. Yes, fibonacci sequences are usually nonsense, but it works better with the BB than 2, 2.5 or 3.

Using just the clouds, you can see where each EMA is headed and how it behaves within the deviation of the others.

But that on its own isn't enough.

The indicator will also print snowflakes above and below the candle for notable outliers. It will be in the colour of the cloud it breaks, but only if that break is also breaking the smaller EMA clouds too.

The most snowflakes will be yellow because that's the 13 EMA. That one is dependent on nothing else and every break will print a snowflake. The 21 will be dependent on the 13. The 50 dependent on the 13 and 21 breaks. The 200 the most important.

For example, if the 200 EMA-BB or EBB is broken at the upper band, deviating by more than 162% of price over a 200 period EMA, and that break is not above the 50 EMA cloud, there will be no snowflake. However, if it exceeds the 13, 21, 50, and 200 clouds, then a purple snowflake will appear above the bar.

Any snowflake is an extreme in price. The purple is an especially good point of entry. That doesn't mean it is a perfect entry. You can build position from it, though, and be relatively certain of a price correction in the near future, because not only was this major EMA cloud violated, but all of the smaller ones too.

Reminder

You still need your PVSRA and candlesticks. This indicator on its own may have a nice hit rate for scalping and building position, as an alternative to the TDI or alongside it, but it is not enough on its own, just like the TDI.

Enjoy!