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V4:T3:W2_S&P500_Climbing the Wall of Worry_BUT's and IF's!

CME_MINI:ESM2018   S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES (JUN 2018)
The S&P is looking increasingly strong as a bottom appears to be forming. Price has rejected the NO TRADE ZONE earlier last week and pushed back to those levels to test the underlying support which held perfectly shown by the daily chart .

BUT we are not out of the woods yet. ES closed the week below the CRITICAL PIVOT price of 2708 which was expected last week. Being below this level coupled with the descending speedlines and RSI below 50 builds strong reasoning against any LONG positions. This does not mean no long sided day trades. Just no longs held overnight which is my definition of a position. The market is still very heavy here and I would not be surprised to the see a test of the lows around th2530 level of which I will be excited for long term entries.

IF, and only IF, the price action confirms out of that level of which I will watching patiently. This is a strong setup on ES that I believe has a good potential to play out as stocks potentially recover from the trade war tariffs that seem to be totally behind us for the moment. We will know momentum is shifting to the upside when the daily chart starts trading ABOVE the speedlines with respect.

Below in the comments I will post a few historical SPY 1.28% charts to build confidence in this price setup. ES has been my lifelong favorite market with over 5 years of attention to price patterns. I feel super keen with this setup which is a valid reason that it could fail this time.

BUT remember, in the long term, the S&P only goes up. This stock market is like a helium balloon that has been artificially inflated by QE since 1995. So far in my 23 years TEMPORARY forces are the only reason S&P falls. Temporary is the key word and really only means the pullbacks only last about a month.

BUT there is a strong case to be built against the bulls with a huge barrage of scary economic factors. Don't forget who is president and how much the S&P loves to climb to wall of worry. Short term yes ES could break the 2530 lows and descend deeply but the odds are very small in my opinion.

Words of wisdom:
It is better to be in the market 15 days out of the month with the trend and sustain the one day your wrong than to be out of the market for 15 days playing for that one day your are right....

If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated!
Disclaimer: Your data may be different. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!
Symbol | Weekly Directional Bias | Correct : Incorrect counter(weekly)| Win/Loss counter (all trades)
ESM18| LONG | 1:0 | T 0:0
評論: Notice the pullbacks of 2015 and 2016 looked identical to this one.
評論: Couple things to consider. Today is Good Monday for most of the world. US banks are the only banks open. Also, we got the 17 and 50 EMA signaling bearish momentum and RSI below 50. It was perfectly within the realm of reason for ES to pullback this morning.
We are in the no trade zone at the moment and price has not fallen aggressively enough to reach the low where I wanted long term entries. No trades today.
評論:
Does anyone know what the /ES! is that can be charted in Trading View? Is this a continuously rolling ES? Would this eliminate the need for me to use the month and year codes? Price of /ES! and /ESM18 are practically identical.
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