Bear Market for bonds is one thing that I can firmly say about this market. The US 10-Y bond yield should rise to somewhere around 3% by the end of this year so that is about 30 basis points to my target. Bonds are no longer attractive switch your money to stocks is a better option or better yet short it.
My Investment thesis on shorting bonds
- FED is shifting to more hawkish tone (a possible of 4 rate hikes instead of 3 this year) due to a possible picking up of inflation.
- Unwinding of carry trade.
- EM bonds are much more attractive.
- Credit spread is at an all time low (High Yield spread and Investment Grade spread)
Technically speaking, bonds has been in a downtrend for a while; so, this is quite a late call, but I believe there is still a downside here that we can play.
My Investment thesis on shorting bonds
- FED is shifting to more hawkish tone (a possible of 4 rate hikes instead of 3 this year) due to a possible picking up of inflation.
- Unwinding of carry trade.
- EM bonds are much more attractive.
- Credit spread is at an all time low (High Yield spread and Investment Grade spread)
Technically speaking, bonds has been in a downtrend for a while; so, this is quite a late call, but I believe there is still a downside here that we can play.
手動結束交易:
I moved to property; I'm wrong about the yield play, gotta get back in with leverage.